Airtel Poised to Outpace Reliance Jio and Vodafone Idea in Q3 Revenue Growth

Bharti Airtel is likely to lead the revenue growth race among private telecom operators in Q3FY25. This growth is attributed to the residual impact of tariff hikes introduced in July 2024 and the increased adoption of mobile broadband services. According to reports, the rate hikes from the previous year are expected to uplift average revenue per user (ARPU) across all 3 telcos, with Airtel projected to benefit the most.

Subscriber Gains and SIM Consolidation Trends

Airtel and Reliance Industries telecom subsidiary Reliance Jio are anticipated to report subscriber gains in the December quarter, largely due to easing SIM consolidation effects. However, Vodafone Idea (Vi) is likely to continue facing significant customer losses, including its 4G user base, due to its higher proportion of price-sensitive customers.

The state-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) saw initial gains when it refrained from raising tariffs. However, many of these customers are now returning to Airtel and Jio due to network quality challenges faced by BSNL.

Impact of 5G Expansion and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)

Jio’s broadband subscriber growth is also expected to receive a boost from the rising popularity of its 5G-based fixed wireless access (FWA) services. This expansion marks a key growth driver for the company, although its revenue growth may lag behind Airtel in the short term.

Revenue and ARPU Projections for Q3FY25

Reports estimate Bharti Airtel’s mobile services revenue could grow 5.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3FY25, surpassing Reliance Jio’s projected 3% growth and Vodafone Idea’s modest 1% rise.

Airtel’s ARPU is expected to increase by 5% sequentially to ₹245. Jio and Vi are projected to see smaller ARPU gains of 3.8% and 3% to ₹203 and ₹161, respectively. Airtel’s stronger ARPU performance is driven by accelerated 2G-to-4G/5G migrations, estimated net additions of 5 million 4G/5G users, and higher postpaid adoption.

Jio’s slower ARPU growth reflects its larger base of long-validity plan subscribers, which defers the full impact of tariff hikes until Q4FY25 and Q1FY26. Vi, meanwhile, is anticipated to lose 4 million users, including 1 million 4G users, and may only stabilise losses after expanding 4G and launching 5G services by March 2025.

Profitability and Financial Projections

Reports indicate that Bharti Airtel’s consolidated net profit for Q3FY25 is likely to rise 48% QoQ to ₹5,320 crore. This performance is further supported by revenue and operating income growth in its Africa operations.

Reports indicate Airtel Africa’s revenue could increase by 4.5% QoQ to $1.3 billion, with EBITDA growing 5.8% QoQ to $593 million.

Reliance Jio’s net profit, by contrast, is expected to grow 5% QoQ to approximately ₹6,546 crore, driven by its steady user base and incremental gains from fixed wireless services.

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