Union Budget 2020-21 Preview
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
1
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
2
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Deficit spending by the Government to revive growth
The Government surprised the markets with a bold budget which focus on reviving
growth by deficit spending. Government expenditure for the year was revised to
₹34.5 lakh cr. from the budget estimate of ₹30.4 lakh cr. The Government surprised
the markets and went for much needed deficit spending with the fiscal deficit for
the year being relaxed to 9.5% from 3.5%. The fiscal deficit figure was significantly
above market estimates of ~7% for FY21. Moreover the fiscal deficit figure for
FY2022 at 6.8% was also well above market estimates.
Revenue expenditure for the year was increased to ₹30.1 lakh cr. from budget
estimates of ₹26.3 lakh cr., while capital expenditure was also revised to ₹4.4 Lakh
cr. from ₹4.1 lakh cr. The sharp increase in revenue expenditure by the Government
was on account of increased spending on food and fertilizer subsidies which are
expected to boost the rural economy.
Total subsidies for FY2021 are budgeted to increase by 147% yoy to ₹6,48,736
crore as compared to budget estimates of ₹2,62,109 crore. The jump in subsides
are on account of sharp increase in food and fertilizer subsidies as the Government
has ramped up its spending and has tried to provide support to the rural economy
in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Government is clearly looking to stimulate the economy through increased
spending. While overall spending is expected to grow by 1.0% in FY2022 due to
2.7% yoy decline in revenue expenditure, capital expenditure is budgeted to grow
by 26.2% yoy. The cutback in revenue expenditure is driven by 43.0% yoy decline
in subsidies to ₹3.7 lakh cr. in FY2022.
Key Highlights of the Budget
While rural economy, manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate continues to
remain the key focus areas for the Government, this time around there is a focus
on health and well being which has witnessed significant increase in allocation. Key
measures announced by the Government are:
• Increase in allocation for health & well being from ₹94,452 crore in FY2021 to
₹2,23,846 crore in FY2022.
• Additional deduction of ₹1.5 lakh on affordable housing extended till March
2022 along with Sec 80IBA which provides tax holiday to affordable housing
projects.
• Increase in import duties on electronic components like Printed circuit boards,
compressors, Inputs and parts of LED lights, solar inverters and solar lamps.
• Increase in import duties on various agricultural products, chemicals, plastics,
leather and auto parts to benefit MSME and other domestic manufacturing
sectors.
• Reduction in customs duty raw materials and inputs used by domestic
manufacturers for reducing cost of inputs and correction of inverted duty
structure.
• FDI Limit in insurance companies to be increased to 74% from current 49%
subject to safeguards.
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
3
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Tax revenue assumptions for FY2022 appear conservative
Gross tax collections for FY2021 are expected to grow at 16.7% yoy against
degrowth of 5.5% in FY2021. Net tax collections growth is expected to be lower at
15.0% in FY2020 given that devolution to states are expected to grow by 16.7%
yoy. Direct taxes are expected to grow by 22.4% yoy driven equally by personal
income tax and corporate tax.
Indirect tax collections are expected to grow by 11.1% yoy which is in below the
nominal GDP growth estimates of 14.4% yoy. GST collections are expected to grow
by 22.3% yoy. Customs duties are expected to grow by 21.4% yoy due to increase
in import duties on few items proposed by the Government in order to promote
domestic manufacturing. Excise duties are expected to degrow by 7.2% yoy as part
of the duties on petrol and diesel has been reallocated to the Agriculture
Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC).
Tax revenue growth for FY2022 seems to be conservative given that it is in line
with nominal GDP growth assumption of 14.4% and does not take into account any
tax buoyancy due to rebound in growth in FY2022. Given the strong rebound in
growth expected in FY2022, we believe that the Government should be able to
achieve the tax collection figures.
Government targeting significant sale of assets in FY2022
Non-tax revenues are expected to grow by 15.4% yoy in FY2022 post a contraction
of 35.6% yoy in FY2021. Dividend income from PSU’s are expected to grow by
44% while dividend & profit receipts from RBI and PSU banks are expected to
degrow by 13.5% yoy. It seems like the Government is not expecting any large
surplus transfer from the RBI in FY2022 while dividends from PSU banks may not
show any meaningful improvement given that provisioning is expected to remain
high in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis.
Disinvestment targets for FY2022 has been pegged at ₹1,75,000 crore as
compared to a revised target of ₹32,000 crore in FY2021. The disinvestment for
FY2021 have been revised down significantly from the budget estimates of
₹2,10,000 crore as the Government was not able to compete the strategic sale of
PSUs as per the plan.
While the disinvestment targets for FY2022 appear to be stiff they could be
achieved if the Government is successful in its attempt to strategic sales PSUs like
Air India, BEML, BPCL, CONCOR, IDBI Bank etc. and is able to push through the
IPO of LIC. Moreover the Government has indicated that they are exploring the
sale of two more PSU banks other than IDBI Bank. If the Government is successful
in the strategic sale of assets in FY2022 then we feel that they should be able to
achieve the disinvestment targets.
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
4
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Exhibit 1: Key Fiscal Indicators (% of GDP)
FY20RE
FY20A
FY21BE
FY21RE
FY22BE
Gross Tax Revenue
10.6%
9.9%
10.8%
9.8%
9.9%
Devolution to States
3.2%
3.2%
3.5%
2.9%
3.0%
Net Tax to Centre
7.4%
6.7%
7.3%
6.9%
6.9%
Direct Taxes
5.7%
5.2%
5.9%
4.6%
5.0%
Indirect taxes
4.9%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
5.0%
Capital Receipt (ex borrowing)
0.4%
0.3%
1.0%
0.2%
0.8%
Revenue Expenditure
11.5%
11.6%
11.7%
15.5%
13.1%
Subsidies
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
3.3%
1.7%
Total Capital Expenditure
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
2.3%
2.5%
Total Expenditure
13.2%
13.2%
13.5%
17.7%
15.6%
Revenue Deficit
2.4%
3.3%
2.7%
7.5%
5.1%
Fiscal Deficit
3.8%
4.6%
3.5%
9.5%
6.8%
Primary Deficit
0.7%
1.6%
0.4%
5.9%
3.1%
Source: Budget documents, Angel Research
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
5
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Exhibit 2: Budget 2021-22 at a glance
Particular
Budget (₹ Cr)
YOY (%)
FY20A
FY21BE
FY21RE
FY22BE
FY21RE
FY22BE
(A) Revenue Receipts (1+2)
1,684,059
2,020,926
1,555,153
1,788,424
-7.7
15.0
Gross Tax Revenue (a+b)
2,010,059
2,423,020
1,900,280
2,217,059
-5.5
16.7
Devolution to States/Trf to NCCD
653,157
787,111
555,779
671,663
-14.9
20.9
%
32.5%
32.5%
29.2%
30.3%
1) Tax Revenue (Net to Centre)
1,356,902
1,635,909
1,344,501
1,545,397
-0.9
14.9
a) Direct Taxes
1,049,529
1,319,000
905,000
1,108,000
-13.8
22.4
Income Tax
492,654
638,000
459,000
561,000
-6.8
22.2
Corporate Tax
556,876
681,000
446,000
547,000
-19.9
22.6
b) Indirect taxes
960,530
1,104,020
995,280
1,109,059
3.6
11.4
Custom Duties
109,283
138,000
112,000
136,000
2.5
21.4
Excise Duties
240,615
267,000
361,000
335,000
50.0
-7.2
Service Tax
6,029
1,020
1,400
1,000
-76.8
-28.6
GST
598,749
690,500
515,100
630,000
-14.0
22.3
Others
5,855
7,500
5,780
7,059
-1.3
22.1
2) Non Tax Revenue
327,157
385,017
210,653
243,028
-35.6
15.4
(B) Capital Receipts (3+4+5)
997,301
1,074,306
1,912,510
1,623,429
91.8
-15.1
3) Recovery of Loans
18,316
14,967
14,497
13,000
-20.9
-10.3
4) Disinvestment
50,304
210,000
32,000
175,000
-36.4
446.9
5) Borrowings and Other Liabilities
928,681
849,340
1,866,013
1,435,429
100.9
-23.1
Total Receipt (A+B)
2,686,331
3,042,230
3,450,305
3,483,236
28.4
1.0
(C)Revenue expenditure
2,350,604
2,630,145
3,011,142
2,929,000
28.1
-2.7
6) Of which interest payments
612,070
708,203
692,900
809,701
13.2
16.9
(D) Capital expenditure
335,726
412,085
439,163
554,236
30.8
26.2
Total Expenditure (C+D)
2,686,330
3,042,230
3,450,305
3,483,236
28.4
1.0
(E) Fiscal Deficit (C+D-A-3-4)
933,650
796,337
1,848,655
1,506,812
98.0
-18.5
(F) Revenue Deficit (C-A)
666,545
609,219
1,455,989
1,140,576
118.4
-21.7
(G) Primary Deficit (E -6)
321,580
88,134
1,155,755
697,111
259.4
-39.7
GDP
20,296,749
22,479,562
19,481,975
22,287,379
-4.0
14.4
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
4.6%
3.5%
9.5%
6.8%
Source: Company, Budget documents, Angel Research
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
6
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Sharp increase in subsidy burden due to higher food subsidy
After falling from 1.8% of GDP in FY2014 to 1.2% of GDP in FY2019 there has
been a sharp jump in subsidies to 3.3% of GDP in FY2021RE. As per the revised
estimates total subsidies for FY2021 are expected to jump by 147% to ₹6,48,736
crore as compared to budgeted estimates of ₹2,62,109 crore. The jump is total
subsides are on account of sharp increase in food and fertilizer subsidies as the
Government has ramped up its spending and has tried to provide support to the
rural economy in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.
As there was a significant migration of population from Urban to Rural areas higher
procurement of food grains by the Central Government at MSP is the easiest way
for the Government to pump in money into the rural economy. Moreover the
Government had made additional allocation for fertilizer subsidies as part of the
Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package ensure adequate and timely availability of
fertilisers to farmers in the upcoming crop season.
Exhibit 3: Subsidy
Subsidy Break-down
FY16A
FY17A
FY18A
FY19A
FY20A
FY21BE
FY21RE
FY22BE
Major Subsidies
241,857
232,705
191,183
196,769
228,341
227,794
595,620
336,439
Fertilizer Subsidy
72,438
70,000
66,441
70605
81124
71309
133947
79530
yoy growth (%)
1.9%
-3.4%
-5.1%
6.3%
14.9%
-12.1%
65.1%
-40.6%
Food Subsidy
139,419
135,173
100,282
101,327
108,688
115,570
422,618
242,836
yoy growth (%)
18.5%
1.0%
-25.8%
1.0%
7.3%
6.3%
288.8%
-42.5%
Petroleum Subsidy
30,000
27,532
24,461
24,837
38,529
40,915
39,055
14,073
yoy growth (%)
-50.2%
-8%
-11.2%
1.5%
55.1%
6.2%
1.4%
-64.0%
Interest Subsidy
13,808
18865
22,146
20,009
23,702
28,179
32,025
26,282
yoy growth (%)
80.9%
4%
17.4%
-9.7%
18.5%
18.9%
35.1%
-17.9%
Other Subsidy
2,136
3,128
11,099
6,176
10,260
6,136
21,092
7,178
yoy growth (%)
32.7%
46%
254.8%
-44.4%
66.1%
-40.2%
105.6%
-66.0%
Total Subsidy
257,801
254,698
224,429
222,954
262,304
262,109
648,736
369,899
yoy growth (%)
-0.2%
-1%
-11.9%
-0.7%
17.6%
-0.5%
147.3%
-43.0%
% to GDP
1.8%
1.7%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
3.3%
1.7%
Source: Company, Budget documents, Angel Research
Government trying to stimulate economy through deficit spending on
rural economy, healthcare and Infrastructure
n The government surprised the market and made it clear that they are willing to
spend aggressively in order to stimulate the economy.
n Stimulating the rural economy has been the key focus area of the Government
during the year given migration of people from Urban to rural areas
n Capital expenditure during the year has been more than budget estimates and
is expected to grow by a robust 25% in FY2022
n While the Government has imposed an Agriculture Infrastructure and
Development Cess as expected, it has been done in a manner that will not put
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
7
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Sectoral Impact
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
8
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AC/Refrigerators Neutral
Announcement
n Custom duty increased on refrigerators and AC
compressors from 12.5% to 15%.
Impact
n It would increase the cost of refrigerators and ACs,
which is negative for companies like Voltas, Blue Star,
Hitachi, Havells, Whirlpool India, etc.
Agriculture & Rural Development Neutral
Announcement
n To provide adequate credit to the farmers, Government
have enhanced the agricultural credit target by 10% to
₹16.5 lakh crores in FY22. Government will focus on
ensuring increased credit flows to animal husbandry, dairy
and fisheries.
n Government enhanced the allocation to the Rural
Infrastructure Development Fund from ₹30,000 crores to
₹40,000 crores.
Impact
n Neutral for companies such as Coromandel
International, Chambal Fertilizers, Dhanuka Agritech.
n Small increase in absolute amount will not have any
major impact on the sector.
Automobile Positive
Announcement
n Government announces voluntary scrappage policy. CV
to undergo fitness tests after 15 years while PV will
undergo tests post 20 years.
n Urban Infrastructure scheme will facilitate deployment of
innovative PPP models to enable private sector players
to finance, acquire, operate and maintain over 20,000
buses.
n Custom duty increased Specified auto parts like ignition
wiring sets, safety glass, parts of signalling equipment,
etc from 7.5%/10% to 15%.
Impact
n This will be positive for EOMs and electric vehicle
manufacturer companies like Ashok Leyland, Tata
Motors and M&M
n Positive for bus manufacturers like Ashok Leyland and
Tata Motors
n Positive for Auto Ancillary companies like Motherson
Sumi and MInda Corporation
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
9
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Banks & Financial Services (BFSI) Positive
Announcement
n To Consolidate the financial capacity of PSBs, further
recapitalization of ₹20,000 crores is proposed in 2021-
22
n Government proposes to form an Asset Reconstruction
Company (ARC) and Asset Management Company
(AMC) would be set up to consolidate and take over the
existing stressed debt.
n Tax holiday for Affordable Housing to increase for one
more year
Impact
n Capital infusion by Government will strengthen the
balance sheet of PSU banks. Positive for SBIN, BOB.
n This will help to to solve the issue related to stressed
assets of public sector bank. Positive for public sector
banks.
n Positive for HFCs like LIC Housing Finance and Canfin
Home
Pharma Positive
Announcement
n Government announced outlay of ₹64,180 Crores over 6
years for increasing capacity of the healthcare system by
strengthening existing national institutions and creating
new Institutions.
n Significant increase in Budget outlay for Health and
Wellbeing to ₹2,23,846 crores in FY2022 as against
outlay of ₹94,452 crores in FY2021.
n Government has provided an outlay of 35,000 crores for
Covid-19 vaccine in FY2022 and has indicted that they
will increase the outlay if required.
Impact
n Positive for Pharma sector, companies with higher
domestic sales will get more benefit.
n Positive for hospitals companies like Apollo Hospital
Narayana Hrudalaya
n Positive for Vaccine manufactures like Cadila and Cipla
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
10
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Cement/Infra/Real Estate Positive
Announcement
n The National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) was launched
in December 2019 with 6835 projects. The project
pipeline has now expanded to 7,400 projects.
n In the BE 2020-21, Government had provided ₹4.12 lakh
crores for Capital Expenditure. Government is likely to
end the year at around ₹4.39 lakh crores in the RE 2020-
21. For 2021-22, Government proposed a sharp increase
in capital expenditure by providing ₹5.54 lakh crores
which is 34.5% more than the BE of 2020-21.
n Government provided an enhanced outlay of ₹1,18,101
lakh crores for the Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways, of which ₹1,08,230 crores is for capital, the
highest ever. By March 2022, the Government would be
awarding another 8,500 kms and complete an additional
11,000 kms of national highway corridors.
n Increased infrastructure spends and real estate
construction will lead to increase in the demand for
cement.
n Affordable Housing project – Government extended the
deadline of purchasing the affordable house from 31st
March 2021 to 31st March 2022. Further, to keep up the
supply affordable houses government extended tax
holiday for one more year.
Impact
n Positive for the Infrastructure sector as a whole. Addition
in infrastructure projects will lead to increase in order
book for the companies.
n Positive for infrastructure companies such as L&T, PNC
Infratech, KNR Constructions etc as increase in capital
expenditure by the Government will lead to better
revenue visibility for infrastructure companies.
n Positive for road infrastructure development companies
such as KNR Constructions, PNC Infratech, Ashoka
Buildcon.
n Positive for cement companies such as UltraTech
Cement, JK Cement, ACC, JK Lakshmi etc.
n Real Estate developers will launch more projects in the
near future under Affordable Housing. Positive for
companies such as Brigade enterprises and Sobha Ltd.
City Gas Distribution Positive
Announcement
n The government will add 100 more districts in the next
3years to the City Gas Distribution network.
Impact
n This will be very positive for CGDs companies such as
MGL, IGL, and Gujarat Gas.
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
11
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Consumer Durables Positive
Announcement
n Custom duty increased on inputs and parts of LED lights
or fixtures including LED Lamps from 5% to 10%.
Impact
n Positive for Indian LED lights manufacture companies
like Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Bajaj
Electricals, Havells India etc.
Power Positive
Announcement
n Government has announced an outlay of Rs. 3.05 Lakhs
crores for DISCOMS over 5 years. The government will
come up with a revamped reforms-based result-linked
power distribution sector scheme.
Impact
n Resolution of DISCOMs issues will be positive for
Generation companies like PFC and REC, which have
provided working capital loans to DISCOMs.
FMCG Neutral
Announcement
n No increase in duties or additional cess on cigarettes has
surprised the market positively.
n No change in income tax rates will marginally reduce
savings as expenses of households will increase in line
with inflation.
Impact
n Positive for cigarette manufacturers like ITC, VST
Industries, and Godfrey Phillips.
n Neurtal for FMCG sector.
Gold/ Diamond, Gems & Jewellery Positive
Announcement
n Custom duty reduced on Gold and silver from 12.5% to
7.5% and Imposition of Agriculture Infrastructure and
Development Cess on Gold, Silver and dore bars - 2.5%
n Custom duty increased on Synthetic Cut and Polished
Stones (Gems) from 7.5% to 15%.
Impact
n This will net positive for jewellery companies like Titan
Company.
n Positive for Indian Gems and Jewellery companies like
Vaibhav Global.
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
12
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Insurance Positive
Announcement
n Increasing FDI in Insurance Sector -
Government proposes to amend the Insurance Act, 1938
to increase the permissible FDI limit from 49% to 74% in
Insurance Companies and allow foreign ownership and
control with safeguards
Impact
n Positive for Indian Insurance companies such as ICICI
Life Insurance, HDFC life insurance and SBI life
insurance.
Household Appliances Positive
Announcement
n Ujjawala scheme will be extended to cover additional 1
crore beneficiaries (Ujjwala Scheme which has benefited
8 crores households)
Impact
n This will be positive for kitchen appliances companies
like TTK Prestige, Hawkins Cooker and Butterfly
Gandhimathi Appliances.
Manufacturing Positive
Announcement
n Government aims to spend ₹1.97lakh cr on various PLI
schemes over the next 5 years (This will be in addition to
the PLI scheme of ₹40,951 crore announced for the
electronic sector).
n Custom duty increased on Inputs, parts or sub-parts for
manufacture of specified parts of mobile phones
including Printed Circuit Board Assembly (PCBA),
Camera module, Connectors from 0% to 2.5%.
Impact
n This is positive for Indian manufacturing industry.
n Positive for Indian mobile manufacture companies like
Dixon Technologies.
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
13
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Miscellaneous Positive
Announcement
n Urban Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0 will be implemented
with a total financial allocation of ₹1,41,678cr over a
period of 5 years.
Impact
n It is positive for company like Antony Waste Handling
Cell.
Textiles Positive
Announcement
n Government announces Mega investment in Textiles
Park in addition to PLI scheme.
n Custom duty reduced on Caprolactam, Nylon Chips,
Nylon fibre and yarn from 7.5% to 5%.
Impact
n This will be positive for Textiles companies like Siyaram
Silk Mills, Vardhman Textiles, Arvind etc.
n It will reduce the cost of raw material. Hence it will be
positive for Textiles companies like Siyaram Silk Mills,
Arvind etc
Solar Pumps Positive
Announcement
n Custom duty increased on solar lanterns or solar lamps
from 5% to 10%.
Impact
n Key pump companies that stand to benefit are Shakti
Pumps, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, etc.
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
14
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Budget Picks
Market Cap
(₹ cr)
CMP
(₹)
Target
Price (₹)
Sales
(₹)
PAT
(₹)
ROE
(%)
P/E
(x)
FY21E
FY22E
FY21E
FY22E
FY21E
FY22E
FY21E
FY22E
Ashok Leyland
35,886
122
140
13,952
20,958
(178)
758
(0.6)
2.5
(201.6)
47.3
Narayana Hrudayalaya
9,604
470
550
2,643
3,930
(60)
235
-
18.5
-
40.9
Escorts
17,055
1,265
1,573
6,523
7,464
773
882
15.2
15.1
22.1
19.3
Coromandel Inter
24,336
830
971
14,460
15,658
1,452
1,578
29.8
26.3
16.8
15.4
JK Lakshmi cement
3,936
335
422
4,151
4,505
315
333
14.5
17.0
12.5
11.8
PNC Infratech*
5,032
196
233
4,862
5,574
343
445
12.7
14.5
14.7
11.3
Source: Company, Angel Research Note: * Standalone
Union Budget 2021-22 Review
15
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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