Market Outlook
January 4, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open on a negative note tracking the SGX Nifty and
BSE Sensex
0.2
43
26,161
Asian markets.
Nifty
0.2
17
7,963
U.S. markets like most Global markets were closed on Friday (New Year). In earlier
Mid Cap
0.9
102
11,245
session, the US markets had ended on a negative note mainly due to disappointing
Small Cap
0.9
104
11,941
economic data which showed that initial jobless claims jumped to
287,000,
Bankex
0.6
120
19,448
representing an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s number. Economists
were expecting claims to be at 270,000.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
All European markets too were closed for the start of the New Year. Most European
Dow Jones
(1.0)
(179)
17,425
markets were closed on 31st December while the ones that were open saw limited
action.
Nasdaq
(1.2)
(58)
5,007
FTSE
(0.5)
(32)
6,242
Indian markets ended Friday's session on a flat note owing to lack of directional cues
Nikkei
0.3
51
19,034
from global markets and amid the release of disappointing core sector output data.
Hang Seng
0.1
32
21,914
News & Result Analysis
Shanghai Com
(0.9)
(34)
3,539
December monthly auto sales: Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motor Co., Ashok Leyland
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances
2,006
1,113
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Declines
837
452
Unchanged
121
40
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer P4 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
Top Picks
BSE
2,985
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
NSE
12,791
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
450
630
40.0
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
846
1,132
33.9
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
263
354
34.6
FII
1,105
205
18,328
Ashok Leyland
Automobiles
Buy
89
111
25.1
MFs
233
4,319
68,910
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,289
1,646
27.7
More Top Picks on Pg3
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
Sreinfra
66
19.3
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Pmcfin
1
9.1
Jan 4
UK
PMI Manufacturing
52.70
52.80
Relinfra
591
9.0
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
53.00
53.00
Jetairways
761
8.3
Jan 5
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
(13.00)
(8.00)
Adanient
90
8.0
Jan 6
Germany
PMI Services
55.40
55.40
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Bergepaint
261
(2.7)
Sunasian
61
(1.9)
Jindalstel
94
(1.9)
Welcorp
113
(1.7)
Gail
370
(1.5)
As on January 1, 2015
Market Outlook
January 4, 2016
December monthly auto sales: Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motor Co.,
Ashok Leyland
Hero MotoCorp, reported a 5.0% decline in its sales for the month of December.
The company reported two-wheeler sales of 499,665 units, which is below
estimates, and against 526,097 units reported in the same month of the previous
year. We currently have a Neutral view on the stock.
TVS Motor Company reported a 4% increase in sales during December 2015,
which is in-line with the estimates. The company reported sales of 202,086 units in
December 2015 against 194,481 units reported in December 2014. Total two-
wheeler sales increased by 5.2% to 194,066 (from 184,474 units in December
2014). Domestic two-wheeler sales grew by 5.2% to 168,160 units (from 159,918
units in December 2014). Three-wheelers sales registered a decline of 20.0% to
8,020 units from 10,007 units reported in previous year. We currently have a Buy
recommendation on the stock.
Ashok Leyland’s total sales increased by 31.4% yoy to 12,209 units (from 9,290
units reported in December 2014), which is ahead of expectations. The sales of
Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles jumped by 35.3% yoy to 9,758 units
(from 7,210 units in December 2014) while Light Commercial Vehicles sales grew
by 17.8% yoy to 2,451 (from 2,080 units in December 2014). We currently have a
Buy recommendation on the stock.
Economic and Political News
Textile exports hit due to US procurement legislation: Ficci
Non-subsidised LPG price rises `49.5, ATF rate falls by 10%
Wheat output may drop for 2nd year straight due to warm winter
Corporate News
IndiGo to launch Delhi-Doha flights this year
Coal India's production and offtake rises by over 9% during April-December
Maruti, Hyundai post robust sales growth in December
Market Outlook
January 4, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,862
870
1,040
19.5
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,257
89
111
25.1
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
1,07,002
450
630
40.0
network, will be the driving force for the bank’s retail business
and overall earnings.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,19,141
846
1,132
33.9
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,74,881
1,089
1,262
15.9
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Due to its robust franchise and capital adequacy position, the
bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
ICICI Bank
1,52,859
263
354
34.6
points higher than the average industry growth rate from a
structural point of view.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,53,387
1,103
1,306
18.4
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
1,19,992
1,289
1,646
27.7
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
25,660
508
592
16.4
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,458
385
429
11.6
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Ipca labs
9,375
743
900
21.1
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,453
167
-
-
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,544
116
156
34.4
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,169
1,248
1,354
8.5
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
629
144
183
27.5
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 04, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Jan 4, 2016
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
52.70
52.80
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec F
53.00
53.00
Jan 5, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Dec
(13.00)
(8.00)
Jan 6, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Dec F
55.40
55.40
Jan 7, 2016
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jan 2
287.00
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec F
(5.70)
(5.70)
Jan 8, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(30.30)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(24.43)
--
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(6.80)
(6.00)
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
211.00
200.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
5.00
5.00
Jan 9, 2016
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Dec
1.50
1.70
Jan 12, 2016
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Nov
9.80
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
1.70
--
Jan 14, 2016
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
(1.99)
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jan 14
0.50
0.50
Jan 15, 2016
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Dec
(0.56)
(0.05)
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
Jan 19, 2016
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Dec
6.20
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q
6.90
--
Jan 20, 2016
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Dec
1,173.00
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Dec
1,282.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
3.90
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
--
--
Jan 21, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Dec F
0.20
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jan 21
0.05
--
Jan 22, 2016
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Dec
4.76
--
Jan 26, 2016
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jan
96.50
--
Jan 27, 2016
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Dec
490.00
--
Jan 28, 2016
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q A
2.10
--
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Jan 27
0.50
0.50
Jan 29, 2016
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q A
2.00
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 4, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.8
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.4
8.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
3.6
3.8
5.0
4.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
54.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.50
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 4, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.1
1.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 4, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
43,350
(8.1)
(4.3)
(12.7)
Russia
Micex
1,761
(0.5)
7.2
22.9
India
Nifty
7,963
0.1
2.1
(3.4)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,539
2.4
14.4
13.2
South Africa
Top 40
45,797
(1.1)
2.0
4.2
Mexico
Mexbol
42,978
(1.0)
2.0
(0.4)
Indonesia
LQ45
792
0.2
13.2
(8.4)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,693
0.6
5.2
(3.2)
Thailand
SET 50
814
(7.0)
(6.7)
(19.7)
USA
Dow Jones
17,425
(1.7)
7.0
(2.3)
UK
FTSE
6,242
(2.1)
3.0
(2.7)
Japan
Nikkei
19,034
(4.3)
6.4
10.6
Germany
DAX
10,743
(5.1)
13.7
13.4
France
CAC
4,637
(6.5)
4.8
8.8
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
January 04, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
180
-
3,509
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
19.0
16.4
3.8
3.3
21.1
21.3
1.7
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
440
510
18,865
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.7
11.4
2.7
2.2
21.4
21.3
1.5
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
89
111
25,257
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
26.1
18.9
4.6
4.2
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,520
2,728
72,922
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
18.7
16.6
6.0
5.1
31.8
30.6
2.6
2.3
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
888
943
20,665
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
25.8
21.7
5.0
4.2
21.1
20.9
2.8
2.4
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
17,371
19,036
47,169
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
36.7
30.2
13.6
10.1
36.7
33.2
3.0
2.7
Gabriel India
Neutral
98
-
1,408
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
21.3
18.2
3.9
3.4
18.1
18.9
1.0
0.9
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,688
-
53,673
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
17.8
16.5
6.9
5.9
38.7
35.6
1.7
1.5
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
141
-
1,126
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
23.5
18.8
4.9
4.1
20.7
21.8
0.9
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
519
-
815
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
14.5
12.5
2.0
1.7
13.5
13.8
0.8
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,263
1,449
78,472
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
21.8
18.7
3.5
3.1
16.1
16.6
1.7
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
4,635
-
140,016
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
26.3
20.6
5.1
4.4
19.4
21.2
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Neutral
917
-
1,455
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
19.9
15.9
3.3
2.8
16.7
17.3
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
297
313
39,338
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
29.5
23.8
9.3
7.3
35.3
34.4
1.1
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Neutral
352
-
278
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.8
12.5
2.1
1.9
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
43
-
568
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
25.0
13.3
2.6
2.3
10.4
16.9
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Neutral
402
-
115,965
255,254
301,772
12.9
13.4
23.7
37.3
17.0
10.8
2.1
1.7
7.4
12.1
0.6
0.6
TVS Motor
Buy
287
338
13,640
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
27.9
17.8
6.9
5.4
24.8
30.5
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
870
1,040
14,862
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
30.2
23.5
7.1
5.6
23.4
24.1
3.0
2.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
147
162
12,529
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
22.3
20.2
2.8
2.6
12.6
12.8
1.5
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
159
171
8,099
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.5
8.4
1.2
1.1
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.8
Ceat
Neutral
1,072
-
4,337
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.8
9.6
2.1
1.8
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
116
-
2,627
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.9
6.3
1.5
1.2
25.2
19.5
0.8
0.7
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
963
-
1,195
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.6
17.8
5.0
4.6
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
109
-
653
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
29.4
16.5
2.0
1.8
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.7
Indag Rubber
Neutral
206
-
540
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.9
13.4
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
46
-
459
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
46.4
11.9
1.5
1.3
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,302
-
5,422
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
44.6
20.3
2.5
2.3
5.7
11.7
1.7
1.4
Bharat Electronics
Neutral
1,376
-
33,018
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.0
25.5
22.6
3.6
3.2
39.3
45.6
3.4
2.9
Stock Watch
January 04, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Accumulate
320
353
10,573
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
29.1
23.2
4.5
3.9
16.2
17.9
1.9
1.7
BGR Energy
Neutral
133
-
957
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.9
10.7
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
171
-
41,854
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
16.3
12.0
1.2
1.1
7.0
9.0
1.3
1.3
Blue Star
Accumulate
385
429
3,458
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
28.1
22.4
7.1
4.6
26.1
25.4
1.1
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
194
204
12,156
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
43.1
27.3
3.0
2.8
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
360
458
7,987
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.5
11.4
4.0
3.0
35.0
30.0
1.8
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
157
-
4,032
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
29.1
19.1
2.9
2.7
10.0
14.0
0.7
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
890
-
10,607
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
29.2
22.7
4.5
3.9
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,373
1,630
25,781
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
21.5
16.5
2.8
2.5
13.3
16.1
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Accumulate
205
233
31,853
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
23.1
20.3
2.9
2.7
12.8
13.8
2.4
2.2
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
79
-
1,782
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
78.7
26.2
2.0
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.6
1.4
India Cements
Accumulate
99
112
3,055
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
24.9
10.1
1.0
0.9
4.0
9.5
1.1
0.9
JK Cement
Buy
593
744
4,146
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
33.0
9.7
2.4
2.1
7.5
22.9
1.6
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
335
430
3,939
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
29.1
12.3
2.8
2.4
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
197
-
526
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
23.5
7.6
1.0
0.9
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.6
Orient Cement
Buy
148
183
3,026
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
19.2
13.3
2.8
2.4
13.3
15.7
2.4
1.7
Ramco Cements
Neutral
390
-
9,295
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
25.9
20.8
3.2
2.8
12.9
14.3
2.8
2.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,314
-
39,413
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
49.6
32.8
7.3
6.1
15.7
20.3
5.3
4.2
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,816
3,282
77,276
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
31.6
21.3
3.7
3.2
12.2
15.9
3.2
2.6
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
92
-
3,015
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
13.1
10.2
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.7
KNR Constructions
Buy
576
673
1,620
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
17.2
14.9
2.6
2.3
15.4
15.4
1.8
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,289
1,646
119,992
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
21.0
19.6
2.1
1.9
13.4
14.0
2.0
1.7
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
149
-
7,208
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
23.3
25.3
3.1
2.8
15.9
12.7
11.1
10.0
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
225
285
931
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.8
11.2
1.2
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
77
-
4,295
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
25.8
14.6
1.3
1.2
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.7
PNC Infratech
Neutral
534
-
2,740
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
22.3
16.7
2.2
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
321
-
1,590
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
20.1
10.4
1.1
1.0
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
660
-
971
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
11.2
9.2
1.7
1.4
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
345
-
5,916
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
43.1
28.7
4.0
3.5
10.3
13.5
2.0
1.6
Stock Watch
January 04, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
NBCC
Accumulate
1,004
1,089
12,050
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
25.2
18.5
6.1
4.8
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
MEP Infra
Neutral
46
-
744
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
35.2
15.3
7.4
5.0
21.2
32.8
1.8
1.8
SIPL
Neutral
98
-
3,445
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.7
4.2
-
-
16.8
11.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
71
-
4,240
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.3
2.6
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
450
630
107,002
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.6
10.3
2.4
2.1
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
159
-
36,636
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
11.8
7.5
0.9
0.8
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
117
-
9,273
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.7
3.5
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
238
-
12,931
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
5.1
3.4
0.5
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
41
-
2,652
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.7
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
57
-
9,763
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
11.3
9.1
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,257
-
198,493
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
30.6
26.7
5.8
5.3
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,089
1,262
274,881
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
22.1
17.8
3.8
3.3
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
263
354
152,859
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
12.5
10.8
2.1
1.8
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
90
-
14,420
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
10.5
6.3
0.7
0.6
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
116
-
5,552
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.7
3.9
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
508
592
25,660
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
15.4
12.7
2.9
2.5
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
144
-
4,325
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.9
3.2
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
118
-
23,102
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
6.6
4.3
0.7
0.5
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
20
-
2,660
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.9
6.0
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
228
283
176,720
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
11.4
9.3
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
150
-
10,315
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.8
3.8
0.5
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,938
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.2
5.1
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
732
921
30,707
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
12.6
10.5
2.3
1.9
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
880
-
84,424
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.8
40.9
13.2
11.9
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.3
Britannia
Neutral
2,991
-
35,885
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
63.4
45.7
21.1
19.9
38.3
41.2
4.3
3.7
Colgate
Neutral
977
-
26,561
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
20.1
18.4
14.8
12.9
99.8
97.5
5.4
4.7
Dabur India
Neutral
276
-
48,605
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
37.7
34.1
11.4
9.2
33.7
30.6
5.1
4.6
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,362
-
26,754
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
37.8
33.3
10.7
9.1
28.8
28.9
5.0
4.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,342
-
45,705
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
41.8
35.0
8.5
7.9
19.7
21.0
4.6
3.6
Stock Watch
January 04, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
HUL
Neutral
857
-
185,346
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
41.2
34.7
45.8
36.6
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.6
ITC
Buy
327
382
263,041
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.5
20.6
7.9
6.9
34.1
33.8
6.0
5.5
Marico
Buy
227
363
29,332
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
21.9
18.2
6.4
5.3
33.2
32.4
4.4
3.7
Nestle*
Accumulate
5,786
6,646
55,788
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
36.4
31.3
19.0
17.1
55.0
57.3
4.8
4.2
Tata Global
Neutral
146
-
9,240
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
22.5
19.3
2.2
2.2
6.8
7.4
1.0
1.0
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
846
1,132
119,141
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
15.2
13.4
3.5
2.7
23.0
19.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,103
1,306
253,387
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.9
17.3
4.0
3.4
20.9
19.7
3.5
3.0
TCS
Buy
2,416
3,165
476,105
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
19.3
16.8
7.6
7.0
39.9
42.2
3.9
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Buy
520
646
50,247
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.8
16.3
3.6
3.0
17.9
18.6
1.7
1.5
Wipro
Buy
556
719
137,451
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
14.5
13.2
2.8
2.5
19.5
18.0
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
328
356
6,019
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
15.1
12.8
3.9
3.5
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.4
HT Media
Neutral
92
-
2,149
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
12.7
10.7
1.0
0.9
7.4
8.1
0.4
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Neutral
167
-
5,453
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
18.7
16.9
3.9
3.4
20.9
20.5
2.4
2.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
431
-
16,987
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
18.9
15.8
4.7
4.2
26.7
28.3
5.9
5.1
Hindustan Media
Neutral
297
-
2,178
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
15.5
14.2
2.5
2.2
16.4
15.3
1.9
1.7
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Accumulate
334
380
210,903
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.9
12.9
5.4
5.2
35.5
41.0
2.1
1.9
Hind. Zinc
Buy
149
175
62,894
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.4
9.3
1.3
1.2
16.2
13.2
1.9
1.8
Hindalco
Neutral
85
-
17,521
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
12.6
7.7
0.5
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,028
-
24,848
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
20.8
1.2
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
91
-
36,158
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.2
7.8
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.2
3.2
SAIL
Neutral
48
-
19,928
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
32.0
11.0
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
92
-
27,171
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
7.1
4.8
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
257
-
24,989
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
40.4
11.2
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
139
-
25,995
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.7
6.7
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.4
0.7
GAIL
Neutral
370
-
46,908
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
15.4
12.8
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
242
-
207,385
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
8.5
7.5
1.1
1.0
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Neutral
259
-
19,425
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
20.3
19.3
3.0
2.7
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
433
455
105,191
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
10.2
8.9
1.4
1.2
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Neutral
1,015
-
328,893
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
11.1
9.9
1.3
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Stock Watch
January 04, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
686
-
12,935
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
27.9
28.7
10.0
7.7
42.5
30.2
4.9
4.1
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
882
-
51,523
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
23.1
20.2
7.1
5.4
36.0
30.2
3.8
3.2
Aventis*
Neutral
4,355
-
10,031
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
36.9
28.8
5.4
4.3
19.9
25.5
4.5
3.7
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
332
-
33,983
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
22.7
18.9
6.2
4.9
30.8
29.0
3.4
2.8
Cipla
Neutral
655
-
52,588
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
24.3
22.7
4.1
3.5
18.4
16.8
3.7
3.1
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,106
3,933
52,966
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.5
17.4
3.9
3.3
23.1
20.4
3.1
2.6
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
338
-
2,728
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
19.9
17.0
2.0
1.8
10.5
11.2
2.1
1.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,296
-
27,914
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.4
48.3
16.3
16.8
28.5
34.3
9.2
8.4
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
321
-
2,957
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
34.1
23.6
5.1
4.3
15.7
19.7
2.9
2.6
Ipca labs
Buy
743
900
9,375
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
55.5
26.5
4.0
3.5
7.4
14.0
3.1
2.6
Lupin
Neutral
1,846
-
83,139
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
36.6
27.0
7.6
6.0
22.8
24.7
6.1
4.7
Sun Pharma
Buy
816
950
196,319
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
46.9
30.3
4.5
3.9
13.0
16.6
6.4
5.3
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
69
-
18,648
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
17.0
13.4
1.3
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.5
1.4
NTPC
Accumulate
144
157
119,065
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
12.3
10.9
1.4
1.3
11.4
12.1
2.4
2.1
Power Grid
Buy
141
170
73,687
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.7
10.7
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.5
7.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
341
-
136,131
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
28.4
27.2
2.0
1.8
6.9
6.7
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
143
-
51,431
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
24.2
23.0
2.2
2.0
9.9
9.3
2.1
2.0
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,901
-
12,539
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
44.0
38.8
11.0
9.0
27.4
25.6
4.3
3.7
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
209
290
2,113
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
24.5
16.5
2.8
2.5
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
255
-
3,896
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
20.1
17.9
2.7
2.4
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
576
622
1,329
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
9.3
10.2
2.2
1.9
25.9
19.7
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,376
-
3,741
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
63.1
41.2
10.2
8.2
17.4
22.1
2.2
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
319
-
5,769
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
43.7
37.6
5.7
5.2
13.3
14.4
3.4
2.9
MRF
Accumulate
40,547
45,575
17,196
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.4
10.7
2.5
2.1
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.1
Page Industries
Neutral
13,519
-
15,079
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
58.8
45.2
26.0
18.0
52.1
47.1
7.8
6.2
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
507
-
6,084
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
26.3
20.2
6.5
5.0
27.7
27.8
3.5
2.8
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,248
1,354
1,169
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
13.9
12.0
2.3
2.0
17.9
17.8
0.9
0.8
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
768
-
1,350
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
24.0
18.7
2.5
2.2
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.9
TVS Srichakra
Accumulate
2,880
3,240
2,205
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
11.6
10.7
5.1
3.6
43.6
34.0
1.1
0.9
Stock Watch
January 04, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
HSIL
Neutral
299
-
2,159
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
19.9
15.8
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.4
1.2
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
250
-
3,618
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
27.4
18.8
2.6
2.4
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
514
614
620
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
11.9
9.2
2.2
1.8
19.9
21.2
1.4
1.1
Banco Products (India) Neutral
145
-
1,035
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.4
10.0
1.5
1.4
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
158
-
97
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
6.1
5.6
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,269
-
1,894
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
20.1
18.4
3.3
2.8
17.6
16.5
1.1
0.9
Visaka Industries
Buy
124
144
197
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
5.8
4.3
0.6
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
306
-
2,327
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
21.3
16.7
3.3
2.9
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
84
-
919
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
25.4
13.9
1.7
1.5
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Buy
144
183
629
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.8
7.8
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
185
-
738
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
24.0
19.8
5.1
4.4
20.2
21.1
2.5
1.9
Radico Khaitan
Buy
116
156
1,544
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
20.4
16.4
1.7
1.6
8.3
9.6
1.5
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
420
473
918
861
967
10.9
10.9
24.0
28.2
17.5
14.9
2.6
2.2
14.6
14.9
1.1
0.9
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
405
-
2,286
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
45.0
31.4
6.1
5.6
13.7
17.8
11.0
7.3
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
219
-
323
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
20.2
16.6
3.2
2.8
16.0
17.1
1.0
0.9
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
159
-
638
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
28.2
21.1
5.3
4.4
18.9
20.8
2.9
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,343
-
48,412
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
21.0
25.0
31.5
25.8
149.9
103.2
2.9
2.3
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
288
-
5,934
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
60.8
3.5
3.3
0.2
5.5
2.6
2.4
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
95
-
2,270
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
16.6
15.7
3.7
3.2
22.0
20.6
2.4
2.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 01, 2016
Market Outlook
January 04, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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