Market Outlook
January 5, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open on a Positive note tracking the SGX Nifty and
BSE Sensex
(2.1)
(538)
25,623
most Asian markets.
Nifty
(2.2)
(172)
7,791
Yesterday, US markets closed in the negative territory following sell off in global
Mid Cap
(1.2)
(135)
11,110
markets on renewed fears of global slowdown. The sell off was triggered after the
Small Cap
(1.1)
(133)
11,808
Chinese Caixin report showed that index of Chinese manufacturing activity
Bankex
(2.6)
(504)
18,944
continued to indicate a contraction in December. The Caixin Purchasing Manager’s
Index fell unexpectedly to
48.2 in December from
48.6 in November vs.
expectations of 48.9.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Tracing the same reasons, the European markets slumped amid the sharp sell-off in
Dow Jones
(1.6)
(276)
17,149
Chinese stocks.
Nasdaq
(2.1)
(104)
4,903
Indian markets were down by 2% yesterday, tracking weak trend in Asian and
FTSE
(2.4)
(149)
6,093
European markets after Chinese markets fell by 7%, resulting in trading being
Nikkei
(3.1)
(583)
18,451
halted.
Hang Seng
(2.7)
(587)
21,327
Shanghai Com
(6.9)
(243)
3,296
News & Result Analysis
Aditya Birla Chemicals merged with Grasim Industries
MOIL cuts manganese ore prices by up to 10%
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
1,290
533
Declines
1,611
1,063
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
97
26
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Volumes (` Cr)
Refer P4 onwards
BSE
3,364
Top Picks
NSE
17,174
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
439
630
43.4
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
846
1,132
33.9
FII
281
281
18,345
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
256
354
38.5
MFs
233
4,319
69,441
Ashok Leyland
Automobiles
Buy
92
111
20.7
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,255
1,646
31.1
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Top Picks on Pg3
Gsfc
85
11.8
Key Upcoming Events
Torntpower
199
10.0
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Punjlloyd
31
6.1
Reading
Expectations
Jan 5
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
(13.0)
(8.0)
Rtnpower
12
5.8
Jan 6
Germany
PMI Services
55.4
55.4
Gppl
157
5.5
Jan 7
US
Initial Jobless claims
287.0
-
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
(5.7)
(5.7)
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Sreinfra
61
(7.5)
Rcom
85
(6.5)
Tatamotors
377
(6.1)
Adanient
85
(5.7)
Idbi
85
(5.6)
As on January 4, 2015
Market Outlook
January 5, 2016
Aditya Birla Chemicals merged with Grasim Industries
Aditya Birla Chemicals (India) (ABCIL) on Monday announced that it has merged
with Grasim Industries (Grasim) from the appointment date of 1st April 2015 with
all requisite approvals for the Scheme of Amalgamation in place.
With the merger becoming effective, Grasim's standalone EBITDA for the six
months ended 30th September, 2015 stands increased from `728cr (pre-merger)
to ~`883cr (post-merger).
Grasim will issue 14.62 lakh equity shares to the eligible shareholders of ABCIL in
the ratio of one equity share of `10 each of Grasim for every sixteen shares of `10
each of ABCIL. The share capital will increase from `91.88cr to `93.34 Crore.
This merger has resulted Grasim’s installed capacity of caustic soda increasing
from 453K TPA to 804K TPA. It has also resulted in the geographical diversification
of the Chlor-Alkali business of the Company. It also enables the business to
capitalize growth opportunities backed by Grasim's inherent strengths.
MOIL cuts manganese ore prices by up to 10%
MOIL has revised the prices of manganese ore for the quarter January to March
2016. It has slashed prices of various grades of manganese ore by up to 10%. it
has reduced the prices of all ferro grades ore, all SMGR and SMGR Low, and
fines by 10% while all grades of chemical grade ore is reduced by 5%. There is no
change in the existing price of the Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD).
Economic and Political News
Spectrum price recommendations for auction by mid-January: Trai
Industry wants direct payment of fertiliser subsidy to farmers
Nitin Gadkari announces road projects worth `41,000 crore for Telangana
Corporate News
Welspun Corp gets `100-crore tax notice
Strike cripples production at NMDC's iron ore mine
Extend pricing freedom to existing fields: Oil cos to govt
Market Outlook
January 5, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,846
869
1,040
19.7
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
26,168
92
111
20.7
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
1,04,492
439
630
43.4
network, will be the driving force for the bank’s retail business
and overall earnings.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,18,941
846
1,132
33.9
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,70,399
1,071
1,262
17.9
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Due to its robust franchise and capital adequacy position, the
bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
ICICI Bank
1,48,529
256
354
38.5
points higher than the average industry growth rate from a
structural point of view.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,48,208
1,081
1,306
20.9
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
1,16,900
1,255
1,646
31.1
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
24,708
490
592
20.9
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,416
380
429
13.0
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Ipca labs
9,229
731
900
23.0
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,401
165
189
14.4
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,527
115
156
35.9
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,116
1,191
1,354
13.7
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
639
146
183
25.5
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 05, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Jan 5, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Dec
(13.00)
(8.00)
Jan 6, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Dec F
55.40
55.40
Jan 7, 2016
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jan 2
287.00
275.00
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec F
(5.70)
(5.70)
Jan 8, 2016
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
211.00
200.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
5.00
5.00
Jan 9, 2016
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Dec
1.50
1.60
Jan 11, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(30.30)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(24.43)
--
Jan 12, 2016
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Nov
9.80
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
1.70
--
Jan 13, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(6.80)
(6.90)
Jan 14, 2016
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
(1.99)
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jan 14
0.50
0.50
Jan 15, 2016
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Dec
(0.56)
(0.10)
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
Jan 19, 2016
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Dec
6.20
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q
6.90
--
Jan 20, 2016
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Dec
1,173.00
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Dec
1,282.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
3.90
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
--
--
Jan 21, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Dec F
0.20
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jan 21
0.05
--
Jan 22, 2016
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Dec
4.76
--
Jan 26, 2016
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jan
96.50
--
Jan 27, 2016
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Dec
490.00
--
Jan 28, 2016
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q A
2.10
--
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Jan 27
0.50
0.50
Jan 29, 2016
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q A
2.00
--
Feb 1, 2016
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan
49.70
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 5, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.8
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.4
8.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
3.6
3.8
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
54.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.50
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 5, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
5.3
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.1
1.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 5, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
42,141
(8.1)
(6.0)
(15.9)
Russia
Micex
1,735
(2.2)
6.6
24.2
India
Nifty
7,791
(1.8)
(0.7)
(5.5)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,296
(9.1)
7.2
9.6
South Africa
Top 40
44,460
(4.0)
(1.8)
1.7
Mexico
Mexbol
42,114
(4.3)
(1.2)
(0.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
782
(0.6)
12.3
(11.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,653
(1.1)
3.1
(5.5)
Thailand
SET 50
795
(8.9)
(8.4)
(21.4)
USA
Dow Jones
17,149
(4.1)
5.4
(2.0)
UK
FTSE
6,093
(4.1)
0.3
(4.3)
Japan
Nikkei
18,451
(6.6)
4.6
4.7
Germany
DAX
10,283
(8.9)
6.4
8.6
France
CAC
4,522
(8.0)
1.4
8.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
January 05, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
175
-
3,412
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
18.5
16.0
3.7
3.2
21.1
21.3
1.7
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
433
510
18,574
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.5
11.3
2.7
2.2
21.4
21.3
1.5
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
92
111
26,168
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
27.0
19.6
4.7
4.4
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.2
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,488
2,728
71,999
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
18.5
16.4
5.9
5.0
31.8
30.6
2.6
2.2
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
869
943
20,223
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
25.3
21.2
4.9
4.1
21.1
20.9
2.7
2.3
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
17,495
19,036
47,507
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
37.0
30.4
13.7
10.2
36.7
33.2
3.0
2.8
Gabriel India
Accumulate
95
101
1,371
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
20.8
17.7
3.8
3.3
18.1
18.9
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,646
-
52,827
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
17.5
16.2
6.8
5.8
38.7
35.6
1.7
1.5
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
138
-
1,104
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
23.0
18.4
4.8
4.0
20.7
21.8
0.9
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
510
-
801
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
14.2
12.2
1.9
1.7
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
1,244
1,449
77,276
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
21.5
18.4
3.5
3.1
16.1
16.6
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
4,583
-
138,455
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
26.0
20.3
5.1
4.3
19.4
21.2
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Neutral
942
-
1,494
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
20.4
16.3
3.4
2.8
16.7
17.3
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
286
313
37,850
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
28.3
22.9
9.0
7.0
35.3
34.4
1.0
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
347
366
274
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.6
12.3
2.1
1.9
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
41
-
545
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
24.0
12.8
2.5
2.2
10.4
16.9
1.4
1.1
Tata Motors
Accumulate
377
402
108,891
255,254
301,772
12.9
13.4
23.7
37.3
15.9
10.1
1.9
1.6
7.4
12.1
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
286
338
13,609
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
27.8
17.8
6.9
5.4
24.8
30.5
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
869
1,040
14,846
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
30.2
23.4
7.0
5.6
23.4
24.1
3.0
2.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
145
162
12,304
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.9
19.8
2.8
2.5
12.6
12.8
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
156
171
7,918
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.3
8.2
1.2
1.1
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.8
Ceat
Neutral
1,068
-
4,319
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.7
9.5
2.1
1.8
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
113
-
2,565
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.8
6.2
1.5
1.2
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
947
-
1,176
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.2
17.5
4.9
4.5
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
106
-
634
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
28.6
16.0
1.9
1.7
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.7
Indag Rubber
Neutral
208
-
547
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
16.1
13.5
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
46
-
458
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
46.3
11.9
1.5
1.3
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,279
-
5,325
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
43.8
19.9
2.4
2.2
5.7
11.7
1.7
1.4
Bharat Electronics
Neutral
1,370
-
32,881
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.0
25.4
22.5
3.6
3.2
39.3
45.6
3.4
2.9
Stock Watch
January 05, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Accumulate
307
353
10,166
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
27.9
22.3
4.3
3.8
16.2
17.9
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
131
-
943
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.8
10.5
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
165
-
40,410
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
15.7
11.6
1.2
1.1
7.0
9.0
1.3
1.2
Blue Star
Accumulate
380
429
3,416
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.7
22.1
7.0
4.5
26.1
25.4
1.1
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
190
204
11,886
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
42.1
26.7
3.0
2.8
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
360
458
7,980
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.5
11.4
4.0
3.0
35.0
30.0
1.8
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
152
-
3,908
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
28.2
18.5
2.8
2.6
10.0
14.0
0.7
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
886
-
10,560
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
29.1
22.6
4.5
3.9
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,340
1,630
25,153
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
21.0
16.1
2.7
2.5
13.3
16.1
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Buy
202
233
31,387
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
22.7
20.0
2.8
2.7
12.8
13.8
2.4
2.1
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
76
-
1,721
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
76.0
25.3
1.9
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.5
1.3
India Cements
Buy
96
112
2,947
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
24.0
9.7
1.0
0.9
4.0
9.5
1.0
0.8
JK Cement
Buy
579
744
4,044
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
32.1
9.5
2.3
2.1
7.5
22.9
1.6
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
335
430
3,942
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
29.1
12.3
2.8
2.4
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
195
-
520
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
23.2
7.5
1.0
0.9
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.6
Orient Cement
Buy
150
183
3,073
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
19.5
13.5
2.8
2.4
13.3
15.7
2.4
1.7
Ramco Cements
Neutral
389
-
9,262
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
25.8
20.7
3.2
2.8
12.9
14.3
2.8
2.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,100
-
38,670
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
48.7
32.1
7.2
6.0
15.7
20.3
5.2
4.1
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,760
3,282
75,741
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
31.0
20.9
3.6
3.1
12.2
15.9
3.1
2.6
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
92
-
3,023
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
13.1
10.2
0.5
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.7
KNR Constructions
Buy
563
673
1,583
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
16.8
14.6
2.6
2.2
15.4
15.4
1.8
1.1
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,255
1,646
116,900
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
20.4
19.1
2.1
1.9
13.4
14.0
2.0
1.7
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
157
-
7,605
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
24.6
26.7
3.2
3.0
15.9
12.7
11.7
10.6
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
223
285
924
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.7
11.1
1.2
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
76
-
4,217
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
25.3
14.3
1.3
1.2
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.7
PNC Infratech
Neutral
538
-
2,759
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
22.4
16.8
2.2
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
312
-
1,542
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
19.5
10.1
1.0
0.9
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
655
-
963
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
11.1
9.1
1.7
1.4
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
339
-
5,813
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
42.4
28.2
3.9
3.5
10.3
13.5
1.9
1.6
Stock Watch
January 05, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
NBCC
Accumulate
989
1,089
11,869
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
24.9
18.2
6.0
4.7
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
MEP Infra
Neutral
45
-
739
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
35.0
15.2
7.3
4.9
21.2
32.8
1.8
1.8
SIPL
Neutral
97
-
3,425
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.6
4.2
-
-
16.7
11.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
68
-
4,090
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.2
2.5
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
439
630
104,492
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.3
10.1
2.4
2.1
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
151
-
34,816
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
11.2
7.2
0.9
0.8
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
115
-
9,099
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.5
3.5
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
233
-
12,673
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
5.0
3.3
0.4
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
41
-
2,629
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.6
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
56
-
9,583
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
11.1
8.9
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,216
-
192,028
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
29.6
25.9
5.6
5.1
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,071
1,262
270,399
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.7
17.5
3.8
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
256
354
148,529
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
12.2
10.5
2.1
1.7
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
85
-
13,610
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
10.0
6.0
0.6
0.6
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
113
-
5,447
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.6
3.8
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
490
592
24,708
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.9
12.2
2.8
2.4
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
137
-
4,120
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.7
3.0
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
113
-
22,189
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
6.3
4.2
0.6
0.5
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
20
-
2,640
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.9
5.9
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
221
283
171,519
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
11.0
9.0
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
145
-
9,947
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.7
3.7
0.5
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,904
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.1
5.1
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
705
921
29,575
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
12.1
10.1
2.2
1.8
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
881
-
84,472
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.8
41.0
13.2
11.9
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.3
Britannia
Neutral
2,971
-
35,640
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
62.9
45.4
20.9
19.8
38.3
41.2
4.3
3.7
Colgate
Neutral
974
-
26,493
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
20.1
18.3
14.7
12.8
99.8
97.5
5.4
4.7
Dabur India
Neutral
277
-
48,640
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
37.7
34.1
11.4
9.3
33.7
30.6
5.1
4.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,501
-
27,339
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
38.6
34.0
11.0
9.3
28.8
28.9
5.1
4.3
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,331
-
45,308
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
41.5
34.7
8.4
7.8
19.7
21.0
4.6
3.6
Stock Watch
January 05, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
HUL
Neutral
857
-
185,476
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
41.2
34.7
45.8
36.6
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.6
ITC
Buy
325
382
261,072
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.3
20.4
7.8
6.9
34.1
33.8
6.0
5.4
Marico
Buy
226
363
29,093
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
21.7
18.0
6.3
5.2
33.2
32.4
4.4
3.7
Nestle*
Buy
5,681
6,646
54,771
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
35.7
30.8
18.7
16.8
55.0
57.3
4.7
4.1
Tata Global
Neutral
144
-
9,069
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
22.1
18.9
2.2
2.1
6.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
846
1,132
118,941
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
15.2
13.5
3.5
2.7
23.0
19.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,081
1,306
248,208
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.5
17.0
3.9
3.3
20.9
19.7
3.4
2.9
TCS
Buy
2,376
3,165
468,075
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
18.9
16.5
7.5
6.9
39.9
42.2
3.8
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
516
646
49,899
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.6
16.2
3.5
3.0
17.9
18.6
1.7
1.5
Wipro
Buy
558
719
137,834
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
14.5
13.2
2.8
2.5
19.5
18.0
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
325
356
5,967
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.9
12.7
3.9
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
91
-
2,112
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
12.4
10.6
1.0
0.9
7.4
8.1
0.4
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
165
189
5,401
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
18.6
16.7
3.9
3.4
20.9
20.5
2.4
2.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
422
-
16,622
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
18.5
15.5
4.6
4.1
26.7
28.3
5.7
5.0
Hindustan Media
Neutral
294
-
2,160
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
15.3
14.1
2.5
2.2
16.4
15.3
1.9
1.7
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Accumulate
331
380
208,756
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.7
12.8
5.3
5.2
35.5
41.0
2.1
1.9
Hind. Zinc
Buy
145
175
61,119
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.2
9.0
1.3
1.1
16.2
13.2
1.8
1.6
Hindalco
Neutral
81
-
16,695
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
12.0
7.3
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,047
-
25,308
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
21.2
1.2
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
90
-
35,742
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.1
7.7
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.1
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
48
-
19,783
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
31.8
10.9
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
89
-
26,371
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.9
4.6
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
257
-
24,960
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
40.4
11.1
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
138
-
25,957
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.7
6.7
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.4
0.7
GAIL
Neutral
360
-
45,652
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
15.0
12.5
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
238
-
203,877
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
8.3
7.3
1.1
1.0
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Neutral
250
-
18,720
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
19.5
18.6
2.9
2.6
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
426
455
103,540
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
10.0
8.8
1.3
1.2
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
995
1,050
322,431
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.9
9.7
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Stock Watch
January 05, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
684
-
12,889
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
27.8
28.6
10.0
7.6
42.5
30.2
4.9
4.1
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
845
-
49,342
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
22.1
19.4
6.8
5.1
36.0
30.2
3.7
3.1
Aventis*
Neutral
4,317
-
9,942
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
36.5
28.5
5.3
4.3
19.9
25.5
4.5
3.7
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
321
-
32,857
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
22.0
18.2
6.0
4.7
30.8
29.0
3.3
2.7
Cipla
Neutral
646
-
51,853
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
23.9
22.3
4.1
3.5
18.4
16.8
3.6
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,057
3,933
52,132
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.3
17.1
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.6
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
331
-
2,668
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
19.5
16.6
2.0
1.8
10.5
11.2
2.1
1.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,253
-
27,554
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
54.7
47.6
16.1
16.6
28.5
34.3
9.1
8.3
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
310
-
2,859
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
33.0
22.8
4.9
4.2
15.7
19.7
2.9
2.5
Ipca labs
Buy
731
900
9,229
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
54.6
26.1
3.9
3.4
7.4
14.0
3.0
2.6
Lupin
Neutral
1,798
-
80,990
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
35.7
26.3
7.4
5.8
22.8
24.7
5.9
4.5
Sun Pharma
Buy
799
950
192,204
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
45.9
29.7
4.4
3.8
13.0
16.6
6.3
5.2
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
68
-
18,459
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
16.8
13.3
1.3
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.5
1.3
NTPC
Accumulate
144
157
118,529
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
12.3
10.9
1.4
1.3
11.4
12.1
2.4
2.1
Power Grid
Buy
141
170
73,713
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.7
10.7
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.5
7.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
327
-
130,555
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
27.2
26.1
1.9
1.8
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
136
-
48,857
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
23.0
21.9
2.1
1.9
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,936
-
12,613
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
44.2
39.0
11.0
9.1
27.4
25.6
4.4
3.7
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
207
290
2,092
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
24.2
16.4
2.8
2.4
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
251
-
3,843
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
19.8
17.7
2.7
2.4
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
564
622
1,301
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
9.1
10.0
2.1
1.8
25.9
19.7
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,332
-
3,622
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
61.1
39.8
9.9
8.0
17.4
22.1
2.1
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
309
-
5,604
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
42.4
36.5
5.5
5.1
13.3
14.4
3.3
2.8
MRF
Accumulate
40,495
45,575
17,174
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.4
10.7
2.5
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.1
Page Industries
Neutral
13,553
-
15,116
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
59.0
45.3
26.0
18.1
52.1
47.1
7.9
6.2
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
500
-
6,007
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
26.0
20.0
6.4
4.9
27.7
27.8
3.5
2.8
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,191
1,354
1,116
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
13.3
11.4
2.2
1.9
17.9
17.8
0.8
0.8
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
753
-
1,324
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
23.5
18.3
2.4
2.2
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.9
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,817
3,240
2,157
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
11.3
10.4
4.9
3.6
43.6
34.0
1.1
0.9
Stock Watch
January 05, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
HSIL
Neutral
299
-
2,162
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
19.9
15.9
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.4
1.2
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
246
-
3,552
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
26.9
18.4
2.6
2.4
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
527
614
637
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
12.2
9.5
2.2
1.8
19.9
21.2
1.5
1.1
Banco Products (India) Neutral
144
-
1,030
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.4
10.0
1.5
1.4
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
153
-
94
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.9
5.5
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,268
-
1,892
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
20.0
18.3
3.3
2.8
17.6
16.5
1.1
0.9
Visaka Industries
Buy
122
144
194
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
5.7
4.3
0.5
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
303
-
2,302
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
21.1
16.5
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
82
-
897
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
24.8
13.6
1.6
1.5
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Buy
146
183
639
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.9
8.0
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
183
-
729
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
23.7
19.5
5.0
4.4
20.2
21.1
2.5
1.9
Radico Khaitan
Buy
115
156
1,527
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
20.1
16.2
1.7
1.6
8.3
9.6
1.4
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
418
473
914
861
967
10.9
10.9
24.0
28.2
17.4
14.8
2.5
2.2
14.6
14.9
1.1
0.9
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
396
-
2,240
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
44.0
30.7
6.0
5.5
13.7
17.8
10.8
7.2
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
217
-
320
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
20.1
16.4
3.2
2.8
16.0
17.1
1.0
0.9
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
158
-
632
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.9
20.9
5.3
4.3
18.9
20.8
2.9
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,262
-
45,481
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
19.8
23.5
29.6
24.3
149.9
103.2
2.7
2.2
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
280
-
5,777
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
59.2
3.4
3.2
0.2
5.5
2.5
2.4
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
94
-
2,237
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
16.3
15.4
3.6
3.2
22.0
20.6
2.3
2.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 04, 2016
Market Outlook
January 05, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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