Market Outlook
August 5, 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.4)
(115)
28,072
Indian markets are expected to open flat with positive bias tracking SGX Nifty.
Nifty
(0.3)
(26)
8,517
U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday, but off the session lows hit when one of the Fed
MID CAP
1.1
126
11,457
president indicated that September interest-rate hike is likely unless there is a
SMALL CAP
0.7
80
12,021
significant deterioration in the economy.
BSE HC
0.1
11
17,115
FTSE 100 was down as Standard Life shares were lower by 3.3% after it said that its
BSE PSU
1.0
80
7,839
annuities business suffered from recent pension reforms.
BANKEX
0.5
103
21,815
AUTO
1.0
193
19,440
Markets corrected on profit booking post RBI announced its 3rd bio-monthly policy
METAL
2.7
231
8,805
review. In a volatile trading session, Sensex plunged more than 300 points intraday
OIL & GAS
(0.7)
(68)
9,784
and Nifty breached 8500, but managed to cut losses in later part of the session.
BSE IT
(0.6)
(65)
10,949
Index heavyweights Infosys, Reliance, ITC and HDFC twins dragged the market, but
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
select banks and metals & mining stocks supported.
Dow Jones
(0.3)
(48)
17,551
News & Result Analysis
NASDAQ
(0.2)
(10)
5,106
Alstom T&D bags `232cr orders from Power Grid
FTSE
(0.0)
(2)
6,687
Result Review: MM Forgings, JK Tyre
Nikkei
(0.1)
(28)
20,520
Refer detailed news & result analysis on the following page
Hang Sang
(0.0)
(5)
24,406
Markets Today
Straits Times
(0.1)
(2)
3,191
The trend deciding level for the day is 28,068 / 8,510 levels. If NIFTY trades above
Shanghai Com
3.7
134
3,757
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up
to 28,269 - 28,466 / 8,572 - 8,627 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
Indian ADR
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
28,068 / 8,510 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
INFY
(0.1)
(0.0)
$16.9
27,870 - 27,669 / 8,455 - 8,393 levels.
WIT
(0.3)
(0.0)
$12.2
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
IBN
(0.4)
(0.0)
$10.3
SENSEX
27,669
27,870
28,068
28,269
28,466
HDB
(0.0)
(0.0)
$62.9
NIFTY
8,393
8,455
8,510
8,572
8,627
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Net Inflows (August 3, 2015)
Advances
1,626
826
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
Declines
1,282
677
FII
4,497
4,067
430
430
141,400
Unchanged
122
68
MFs
954
1,036
(81)
(81)
57,867
Volumes (` cr)
FII Derivatives (August 4, 2015)
BSE
4,469
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
NSE
21,978
Index Futures
1,634
1,865
(231)
15,023
Stock Futures
3,932
3,083
849
49,762
Gainers / Losers
Gainer
Loser
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
ADANIENT
94
11.3
SUNTV
353
(5.8)
TORNTPOWER
164
10.1
KAILASH
5
(5.0)
PUNJLLOYD
32
9.1
FSLNIITTECH
460
(4.3)
UNIONBANK
201
8.2
FSL
31
(3.9)
CEATLTD
1,000
7.9
IDEA
165
(3.8)
Market Outlook
August 5, 2015
Alstom T&D bags `232cr orders from Power Grid
Alstom T&D India (ATDIL) announced that it has bagged `231.7cr worth of orders
from Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL) for the supply of transformers
and shunt reactors.
ATDIL has been awarded 3 new contracts to supply transformers and shunt
reactors for 765/400kV substation at Agra, U.P and spare units for 765kV
transformers and reactors as part of Eastern and Southern Region strengthening
schemes.
Products for these 3 contracts would be delivered from Alstom T&D's factory at
Vadodara.
At 1QFY2016-end, ATDIL was sitting on an Order Book of `8,100cr, reflecting
OB/LTM sales ratio of ~2.0x.
Result Review
MM Forgings (CMP: `693/ TP: `797/ Upside: 15.1%)
For 1QFY2016, the company reported numbers that were below our estimates.
The top-line during the quarter de-grew marginally by 0.3% yoy to `124cr. The
same was below our estimate of `144cr. The raw material cost declined by 546bp
yoy to 39.3% of sales, but the benefits were offset by an increase in employee cost,
power costs and other expenses. Employee costs, power costs and other expenses
rose by 275bp yoy, 154bp yoy and 176bp yoy to 11.4%, 11.0% and 16.8% of
sales, respectively. As a result, the EBITDA margin witnessed a decline of 59bp yoy
to 21.6%, which is below our estimate of 22.7%. Consequently, the net profit
declined by 2.4% yoy to `13cr vis-à-vis our expectation of `16cr.
At current market price, the stock is trading at 10.4x its FY2017E earnings. We
have a Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of `797 based on a
target P/E of 12.0x for FY2017E.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
Mar
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%) (x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2016E
563
22.1
62
51.0 23.1 13.6
2.8
7.4
1.6
FY2017E
671
22.9
80
66.5 24.1 10.4
2.3
5.8
1.3
JK Tyres Ltd (CMP: `123/ TP: /Upside:)
JK Tyres Ltd 1QFY2016 results were ahead of estimates. Revenues declined 5%
yoy to `1,777cr v/s expectations of `1,857cr. Subdued demand in the truck
replacement segment coupled with surge in Chinese imports impacted the topline.
However, JKT posted a record multi-year high operating margin of 16.7% which
beat our estimates of 14.6%. The margins were boosted by lower raw material
costs (softness in both the key raw material viz rubber and crude derivatives).
Buoyed by a robust operating performance, the Net profit at `118cr more than
doubled on yoy basis and was ahead of our expectations of `111cr. We currently
have Neutral rating on the stock and would review estimates post management
interaction.
Market Outlook
August 5, 2015
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2016E
7,774
13.4
398
17.6
23.1
7.0
1.6
5.2
0.7
FY2017E
8,456
12.9
410
18.1
19.6
6.8
1.3
5.1
0.7
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Tata Chemicals Ltd (Consol)- August 05, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY16E
1QFY15
y-o-y (%)
4QFY15
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
4,118
3,803
8.3
3,658
12.6
EBITDA
564
504
12.0
411
37.1
EBITDA margin (%)
13.7
13.2
11.2
Net profit
222
176
26.3
(74)
0.0
Siemens Ltd- August 05, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY16E
1QFY15
y-o-y (%)
4QFY15
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
2,438
2,319
5.1
2,589
(5.8)
EBITDA
225
53
325.7
250
(10.1)
EBITDA margin (%)
9.2
2.3
9.7
Net profit
127
13
878.2
162
(21.4)
Canara Bank- August 05, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY16E
1QFY15
y-o-y (%)
4QFY15
q-o-q (%)
PAT
585
807
(27.5)
613
(4.5)
Tata Global Beverages Ltd (Consol)- August 06, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY16E
1QFY15
y-o-y (%)
4QFY15
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
1,987
1,884
5.4
1,875
6.0
EBITDA
205
201
2.0
188
9.0
EBITDA margin (%)
10.3
10.7
10.0
Net profit
104
97
6.4
4
2,553.8
Economic and Political News
RBI holds rate but says open to cuts
US renews GSP benefits for Indian exporters
After auction, only 6 coal blocks resume output
Govt hopes to make Swiss Challenge work for railways
Corporate News
Britannia to ramp up rural distribution, manufacturing
Sterlite wants land to set up LCD panel factory
Klesch Group drops plans to buy out Tata Steel unit
DLF seeks shareholders nod to raise up to `7,500cr
Market Outlook
August 5, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Axis Bank
Financials
137,830
Buy
580
716
23.4
ICICI Bank
Financials
182,328
Buy
314
370
17.8
Infosys
IT
243,430
Buy
1,060
1,306
23.2
Inox Wind
Cap Goods
9,126
Buy
411
505
22.8
LIC Housing Fin.
Financials
25,806
Buy
513
590
15.0
Power Grid
Power
73,608
Buy
141
170
20.8
TCS
IT
491,504
Buy
2,509
3,168
26.3
Tech Mahindra
IT
52,158
Buy
542
646
19.1
Yes Bank
Financials
35,109
Buy
840
989
17.8
Sun Pharma
Pharma
199,740
Accumulate
830
950
14.5
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Mid Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
Others
2,617
Buy
260
341
31.4
Garware Wall Rope
Others
652
Buy
298
390
31.0
Hindustan Media Ven.
Media
1,779
Buy
242
292
20.5
MBL Infrastructures
Construction
1,118
Buy
270
395
46.3
Mangalam Cements
Cement
695
Buy
261
349
34.0
Radico Khaitan
Others
1,253
Buy
94
112
18.9
Minda Industries
Auto Ancillary
933
Accumulate
588
652
10.8
MT Educare
Others
489
Accumulate
123
141
14.9
Setco Automotive
Auto Ancillary
682
Accumulate
255
286
12.1
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Tata Chemicals, Automotive Axle, Siemens, Ramco Cements, Canara Bank, GlaxoSmith Con, Marico, Indraprasth
August 5, 2015
Gas, ITD Cementation, Tree House, PTC India
August 6, 2015
Tata Global, Motherson Sumi, Cummins India, Bajaj Electrical, Styrolution, Banco
Tata Motors, M&M, BHEL, Mangalam Cement, Rural Elec.Corp., Corporation Bank, GSPL, Kirloskar Engines India Ltd,
August 7, 2015
MT Educare
August 8, 2015
Central Bank, UCO Bank, Divi's Lab.
August 9, 2015
August 10, 2015
LMW, J & K Bank, Finolex Cables, Power Grid Corpn, Adani Power, HDIL, Radico Khaitan
Bosch India, Apollo Tyres, J K Lakshmi Cements, St Bk of India, NMDC, Tata Steel, Prakash Industries, HPCL, Siyaram
August 11, 2015
Silk Mills, Sun Pharma, Reliance Power
Ashok Leyland, India Cements, IDBI Bank, Coal India, Jindal Steel, Nalco, Bhushan Steel, TVS Srichakra, Cadila
August 12, 2015
Healthcare, Aurobindo Pharma, Anant Raj
August 13, 2015
IOC, Page Industries, Surya Roshni, Tata Power Co., Unitech
August 14, 2015
Amara Raja Batteries, SAIL, Hindalco, BPCL, Elecon Engineering, GIPCL
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
August 5, 2015
1:25PM Germany PMI Services
Value
Jul F
53.70
53.70
August 6, 2015
6:00PM US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Aug 1
267.00
272.50
4:30PM UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Aug 6
0.50
0.50
2:00PM UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.10
2.20
August 7, 2015
6:00PM US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Jul
223.00
225.00
6:00PM US
Unnemployment rate
%
Jul
5.30
5.30
August 8, 2015
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jul
2.80
(1.40)
August 9, 2015
7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.40
1.60
August 10, 2015
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jul
(13.40)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jul
(15.80)
--
August 12, 2015
2:00PM UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jul
7.00
--
11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
6.80
6.60
5:30PM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Jun
2.70
--
August 14, 2015
2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jul F
0.20
--
6:45PM US
Industrial Production
%
Jul
0.23
0.25
12:00PM India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jul
(2.40)
--
2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
0.40
--
11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
1.10
--
August 18, 2015
6:00PM US
Building permits
Thousands
Jul
1,337.00
--
6:00PM US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jul
1,174.00
--
2:00PM UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jul
--
--
August 19, 2015
6:00PM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jul
0.32
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
5.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
3.6
3.4
7.0
4.0
2.8
2.7
6.7
6.7
2.6
2.5
6.6
3.0
7.0
6.3
6.4
2.0
0.9
6.0
0.5
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
4.5
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
55.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
8.0
7.4
54.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
53.0
5.6
5.4
6.0
5.2
5.3
4.9
5.0
52.0
4.6
5.0
4.3
51.0
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
2.0
49.0
1.0
48.0
-
47.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
7.0
5.6
6.0
5.3
4.7
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.7
3.0
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.1
0.7
1.0
(1.6)
(1.9)
(0.9)
-
(1.0)
(2.0)
(3.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.2
4.8
3.7
4.0
3.1
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
(1.0)
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
50,058
(5.7)
(12.7)
(10.3)
Russia
Micex
1,674
2.6
(0.8)
21.8
India
Nifty
8,517
0.4
5.2
8.8
China
Shanghai Composite
3,757
(0.6)
(11.3)
72.3
South Africa
Top 40
46,918
1.2
(2.9)
2.0
Mexico
Mexbol
45,178
0.2
0.7
1.3
Indonesia
LQ45
811
(3.0)
(10.4)
(6.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,724
(0.5)
(5.2)
(7.7)
Thailand
SET 50
941
(4.0)
(7.0)
(7.7)
USA
Dow Jones
17,551
(1.0)
(2.9)
6.8
UK
FTSE
6,687
1.5
(3.5)
0.8
Japan
Nikkei
20,520
0.2
5.3
32.5
Germany
DAX
11,456
3.6
1.1
25.1
France
CAC
5,112
6.3
2.6
23.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
220
-
4,279
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
23.2
20.0
4.6
4.0
21.1
21.3
2.1
1.8
United Phosphorus
Neutral
561
-
24,025
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
17.5
14.6
3.4
2.8
21.4
21.3
1.9
1.5
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Neutral
88
-
25,044
17,394
20,318
9.6
10.7
2.8
4.4
31.4
20.0
4.4
4.1
14.3
20.4
1.4
1.2
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,511
-
72,647
23,842
27,264
19.8
19.6
128.4
144.4
19.6
17.4
6.0
5.1
30.5
29.5
2.6
2.3
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
20,178
21,843
54,768
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
56.3
35.8
16.9
12.6
29.8
34.9
4.6
3.4
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,624
-
52,403
28,500
33,028
13.8
14.1
144.2
166.3
18.2
15.8
6.7
5.7
36.7
36.0
1.7
1.4
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
470
-
738
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
13.1
11.3
1.8
1.6
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
1,363
-
84,646
41,078
46,473
11.5
12.0
51.4
62.7
26.5
21.7
3.9
3.5
14.7
15.9
1.8
1.5
Maruti
Accumulate
4,438
4,735
134,066
58,102
68,587
16.7
16.9
182.0
225.5
24.4
19.7
4.9
4.1
19.9
21.0
2.1
1.7
Minda Industries
Accumulate
588
652
933
2,500
2,889
7.6
8.3
39.4
54.3
14.9
10.8
2.1
1.8
14.1
16.3
0.5
0.4
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
335
366
265
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.1
11.9
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Accumulate
255
286
682
718
862
13.3
14.3
13.4
19.0
19.0
13.4
3.0
2.5
15.4
18.5
1.2
1.1
Tata Motors
Accumulate
381
425
109,988
258,457
276,275
13.3
13.7
29.3
35.2
13.0
10.8
1.4
1.3
11.4
12.2
0.6
0.6
TVS Motor
Accumulate
233
255
11,086
11,839
13,985
7.0
8.0
10.8
15.9
21.6
14.7
5.5
4.4
25.5
29.7
0.9
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
973
-
16,623
5,355
6,641
17.4
17.8
31.8
40.9
30.6
23.8
7.7
6.1
25.2
25.5
3.1
2.4
Exide Industries
Neutral
156
-
13,222
7,363
8,247
13.7
14.5
6.6
7.7
23.6
20.2
3.0
2.7
12.6
13.3
1.5
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
217
-
11,043
12,866
13,892
15.7
15.4
20.1
19.9
10.8
10.9
1.7
1.5
15.8
13.6
0.9
0.9
Ceat
Neutral
1,000
-
4,047
6,041
6,770
14.3
13.6
101.5
114.5
9.9
8.7
2.0
1.6
20.0
18.8
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
123
-
2,788
7,774
8,456
13.3
12.9
17.3
18.1
7.1
6.8
1.6
1.3
22.8
19.7
0.7
0.7
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
982
-
1,220
593
677
14.5
14.8
51.2
60.8
19.2
16.2
4.5
4.0
23.3
24.8
1.9
1.6
Subros
Neutral
97
-
582
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
26.2
14.7
1.8
1.6
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.6
Indag Rubber
Buy
200
247
526
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.5
13.0
3.4
2.8
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.3
Capital Goods
ACE
Accumulate
48
54
473
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
47.9
12.3
1.5
1.3
3.2
11.3
0.9
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,554
-
6,471
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
53.2
24.2
3.0
2.7
5.7
11.7
2.1
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
139
-
1,002
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
8.3
11.2
0.8
0.8
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.9
BHEL
Neutral
282
-
69,022
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
26.9
19.9
2.0
1.9
7.0
9.0
2.1
2.0
Blue Star
Neutral
372
-
3,344
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
40.6
25.2
7.3
6.9
9.1
17.5
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
185
204
11,576
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
41.0
26.0
2.9
2.7
7.2
10.8
0.9
0.8
Inox Wind
Buy
411
505
9,126
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
15.5
13.0
4.6
3.4
35.0
30.0
2.0
1.6
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
145
-
3,735
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
26.9
17.7
2.7
2.5
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
1,029
-
12,258
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
33.7
26.2
5.2
4.5
15.0
17.0
1.9
1.6
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
1,376
1,548
25,832
11,856
14,092
14.5
17.8
47.6
76.2
28.9
18.1
3.0
2.7
10.6
15.7
2.0
1.7
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
229
-
35,531
10,930
12,022
20.7
22.2
8.7
10.7
26.3
21.4
3.3
3.2
13.0
15.2
2.8
2.5
India Cements
Buy
91
132
2,808
4,716
5,133
14.9
15.8
1.0
4.5
91.4
20.3
0.9
0.9
1.0
4.5
0.9
0.8
JK Cement
Buy
666
778
4,655
4,061
4,748
16.2
17.7
24.5
42.9
27.2
15.5
2.6
2.3
10.0
15.9
1.6
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
361
443
4,244
3,004
3,618
17.6
19.9
13.9
27.2
25.9
13.3
2.9
2.5
11.8
20.5
1.8
1.5
Mangalam Cements
Buy
261
349
695
1,111
1,336
12.2
15.1
16.3
34.6
16.0
7.5
1.3
1.2
8.2
16.0
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Neutral
183
-
3,754
2,039
2,573
22.7
24.5
9.3
13.3
19.7
13.8
3.4
2.9
18.3
22.6
2.5
1.9
Ramco Cements
Neutral
359
-
8,539
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
23.8
19.1
2.9
2.6
12.9
14.3
2.6
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,448
-
39,882
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
50.2
33.1
7.4
6.2
15.7
20.3
5.3
4.3
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,143
-
86,253
27,562
31,548
20.3
22.0
111.0
145.0
28.3
21.7
4.0
3.4
15.1
17.0
3.2
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
145
-
3,586
7,589
8,021
34.0
35.9
16.0
19.0
9.1
7.7
0.6
0.5
6.5
6.7
3.6
3.8
KNR Constructions
Neutral
562
-
1,580
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
27.7
15.1
2.5
2.2
9.6
15.6
1.9
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,774
2,013
165,044
68,920
82,446
10.9
11.5
57.0
73.0
31.1
24.3
2.8
2.7
13.6
15.5
2.6
2.2
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
220
-
10,657
793
694
53.0
50.9
9.0
8.0
24.5
27.6
5.3
4.3
25.9
18.4
13.1
14.9
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
270
395
1,118
2,507
2,986
12.4
14.4
21.5
20.5
12.5
13.2
1.5
1.4
12.6
12.7
1.2
1.1
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
461
445
2,365
1,719
2,003
13.0
13.5
21.0
28.0
22.0
16.5
1.9
1.7
11.0
10.9
1.5
1.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
94
-
5,394
8,859
9,817
3.0
3.0
23.7
30.1
4.0
3.1
0.5
0.4
10.6
12.3
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
580
716
137,830
26,522
31,625
3.6
3.6
36.2
45.4
16.0
12.8
3.1
2.7
18.2
19.6
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
191
-
42,251
18,934
21,374
2.0
2.0
13.2
15.1
14.5
12.7
1.1
1.0
7.1
7.7
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
173
-
11,483
17,402
20,003
2.0
2.1
40.3
50.7
4.3
3.4
0.4
0.4
9.0
10.4
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
309
-
15,940
15,805
17,745
2.0
2.2
64.3
73.5
4.8
4.2
0.5
0.5
10.8
11.3
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
46
-
2,553
3,580
4,040
2.1
2.2
8.4
10.9
5.5
4.2
0.5
0.4
6.8
8.4
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
68
-
11,584
3,522
4,045
3.2
3.2
12.2
14.1
5.5
4.8
0.7
0.6
12.9
13.4
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,302
-
205,253
11,198
13,321
3.5
3.5
45.1
53.7
28.9
24.2
6.0
5.3
27.2
28.2
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,088
1,255
273,597
38,629
47,500
4.5
4.7
52.6
66.4
20.7
16.4
3.8
3.2
19.6
21.2
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
314
370
182,328
36,037
41,647
3.5
3.6
22.9
26.7
13.7
11.8
2.3
2.0
15.7
15.9
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
68
-
10,923
9,806
11,371
1.7
1.9
10.0
16.3
6.9
4.2
0.5
0.4
6.8
10.4
-
-
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
Indian Bank
Neutral
154
-
7,384
6,454
7,321
2.5
2.6
26.4
33.3
5.8
4.6
0.5
0.4
8.1
9.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
513
590
25,884
2,934
3,511
2.3
2.3
30.9
36.8
16.6
13.9
2.7
2.3
16.8
17.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
182
-
5,462
7,930
8,852
2.5
2.5
51.8
57.1
3.5
3.2
0.4
0.4
9.3
9.5
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
159
-
29,487
24,160
27,777
2.9
3.0
18.5
24.6
8.6
6.5
0.8
0.7
8.8
10.8
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
-
3,159
1,999
2,249
2.4
2.4
3.5
4.0
6.7
5.8
0.8
0.8
12.6
13.1
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
288
-
218,058
86,900
100,550
3.1
3.1
22.1
27.7
13.1
10.4
1.6
1.4
12.7
14.3
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
201
-
12,808
12,995
14,782
2.4
2.4
32.3
40.9
6.2
4.9
0.8
0.6
10.7
12.3
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
41
-
3,548
3,474
3,932
1.8
1.9
5.9
7.2
7.0
5.7
0.6
0.5
8.1
9.3
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
840
989
35,109
7,006
8,825
3.1
3.3
61.4
77.1
13.7
10.9
2.5
2.1
20.1
21.3
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
905
-
86,783
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
51.2
42.1
13.6
12.2
29.4
31.2
5.1
4.4
Britannia
Neutral
3,177
-
38,121
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
67.3
48.5
22.4
21.1
38.3
41.2
4.6
3.9
Colgate
Neutral
1,986
-
27,012
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
41.0
37.3
30.0
26.1
99.8
97.5
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
292
-
51,290
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
39.8
36.0
12.0
9.8
33.7
30.6
5.4
4.9
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,206
-
26,100
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
36.9
32.5
10.5
8.9
28.8
28.9
4.9
4.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,335
-
45,470
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
41.6
34.8
8.5
7.8
19.7
21.0
4.6
3.6
HUL
Neutral
909
-
196,626
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
43.7
36.8
48.6
38.8
110.5
114.2
5.4
4.8
ITC
Buy
329
409
263,816
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.6
20.7
7.9
7.0
34.1
33.8
6.1
5.5
Marico
Neutral
442
-
28,526
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
42.6
35.4
12.4
10.3
33.2
32.4
4.3
3.6
Nestle*
Neutral
6,353
-
61,256
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
40.0
34.4
20.9
18.8
55.0
57.3
5.3
4.6
Tata Global
Accumulate
143
152
9,037
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
22.1
18.9
2.2
2.1
6.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
935
1,100
131,389
41,535
46,519
24.0
23.4
56.6
61.1
16.5
15.3
3.4
2.7
20.8
17.7
3.0
2.6
Infosys
Buy
1,060
1,306
243,430
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.2
16.6
3.8
3.3
20.9
19.7
3.4
2.9
TCS
Buy
2,509
3,168
491,504
108,420
123,559
28.8
28.7
127.2
143.9
19.7
17.4
7.9
7.3
39.9
41.8
4.1
3.6
Tech Mahindra
Buy
542
646
52,158
27,281
31,373
17.3
18.4
30.8
38.0
17.6
14.3
3.6
3.0
20.3
20.9
1.7
1.4
Wipro
Buy
558
753
137,846
54,050
61,617
23.7
23.8
39.4
44.1
14.2
12.7
2.8
2.5
19.9
18.8
2.1
1.7
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
329
356
6,045
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
15.1
12.9
3.9
3.5
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.4
HT Media
Neutral
84
-
1,949
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.5
9.7
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
137
156
4,490
1,939
2,122
26.0
26.0
8.3
9.2
16.6
14.9
2.8
2.6
17.5
17.1
2.3
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
353
-
13,901
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
15.5
12.9
3.8
3.5
26.7
28.3
4.8
4.1
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Hindustan Media
Buy
242
292
1,779
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
12.6
11.6
2.1
1.8
16.4
15.3
1.5
1.3
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
443
-
279,720
77,595
89,628
22.9
24.4
27.6
30.0
16.1
14.8
6.9
6.9
33.9
33.2
2.9
2.5
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
159
-
67,077
15,546
16,821
47.5
49.0
19.7
20.3
8.0
7.8
1.4
1.2
17.2
16.6
2.1
1.6
Hindalco
Neutral
109
-
22,570
112,328
119,817
7.7
7.9
16.3
20.1
6.7
5.5
0.5
0.5
8.0
8.5
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
881
-
21,290
48,125
53,595
18.8
21.0
46.9
97.5
18.8
9.0
0.9
0.8
4.4
9.5
1.3
1.1
NMDC
Neutral
102
-
40,361
12,544
13,330
59.5
59.7
16.3
16.5
6.3
6.2
1.1
1.0
5.1
9.9
2.0
1.9
SAIL
Neutral
59
-
24,388
56,365
63,383
6.9
8.0
7.1
8.2
8.3
7.2
0.5
0.5
7.0
7.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
127
-
37,785
81,842
88,430
30.6
32.8
20.2
25.7
6.3
5.0
0.5
0.4
7.5
8.5
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
256
-
24,902
136,805
149,228
11.3
11.9
26.4
36.8
9.7
7.0
0.8
0.7
6.0
8.0
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
166
-
31,179
12,617
14,513
33.7
40.0
25.5
27.7
6.5
6.0
0.5
0.5
7.4
7.7
1.1
0.9
GAIL
Neutral
345
-
43,775
75,595
85,554
8.6
8.0
31.8
36.1
10.8
9.6
1.2
1.1
10.7
11.4
0.7
0.6
ONGC
Neutral
267
-
228,346
174,773
192,517
22.7
24.8
34.6
38.2
7.7
7.0
1.1
1.0
14.2
14.9
1.4
1.2
Petronet LNG
Neutral
190
-
14,280
45,759
49,386
3.7
4.0
12.6
14.9
15.1
12.8
2.3
2.0
16.1
16.7
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
988
1,050
319,916
339,083
384,014
7.8
9.5
75.7
94.5
13.1
10.5
1.3
1.2
10.7
12.2
1.3
1.1
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
738
-
13,919
2,405
2,859
19.9
20.4
17.7
22.0
41.7
33.6
12.0
9.1
32.6
30.9
5.8
4.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
754
824
44,016
14,435
16,600
22.6
22.6
36.1
41.2
20.9
18.3
6.2
4.7
34.5
29.3
3.4
2.9
Aventis*
Neutral
4,107
-
9,459
2,156
2,455
15.1
16.8
109.7
133.9
37.4
30.7
5.1
4.2
18.4
22.5
4.1
3.4
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
1,844
-
37,746
10,224
11,840
19.7
20.0
69.8
81.0
26.4
22.8
7.0
5.6
26.8
25.3
3.8
3.2
Cipla
Neutral
710
-
56,988
14,051
16,515
18.9
18.7
25.1
28.9
28.3
24.6
4.5
3.9
17.2
16.9
4.1
3.4
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,166
-
71,027
17,443
20,296
22.3
22.4
156.7
180.1
26.6
23.1
5.3
4.4
21.8
20.8
4.0
3.4
Dishman Pharma
Buy
200
280
1,613
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
12.3
9.3
1.2
1.0
9.7
11.7
1.1
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,682
-
31,189
2,818
3,044
18.9
18.9
56.2
58.6
65.5
62.8
18.6
20.1
27.1
30.7
10.6
9.9
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
329
-
3,029
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
25.1
21.2
4.9
4.1
21.2
21.1
2.9
2.5
Ipca labs
Neutral
727
-
9,171
3,533
4,109
18.6
19.6
28.2
34.8
25.8
20.9
3.6
3.1
15.0
15.9
2.9
2.4
Lupin
Neutral
1,644
-
73,957
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
26.5
23.1
6.4
5.1
27.4
24.6
4.7
3.9
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
830
950
199,740
27,839
33,542
27.7
29.7
18.9
26.9
43.9
30.9
4.0
3.5
13.0
14.6
6.6
5.1
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
70
-
18,905
38,302
38,404
14.1
13.1
5.1
6.0
13.6
11.7
1.3
1.2
9.2
10.3
1.4
1.4
NTPC
Neutral
135
-
111,355
89,067
98,329
15.9
16.5
12.1
13.1
11.2
10.3
1.2
1.2
11.0
11.6
2.3
2.2
Power Grid
Buy
141
170
73,608
19,986
22,702
86.2
86.3
11.1
12.7
12.7
11.1
1.7
1.5
14.4
14.7
8.8
8.2
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
414
-
165,372
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
34.5
33.1
2.4
2.2
6.9
6.7
2.3
2.1
Idea Cellular
Neutral
165
-
59,199
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
27.9
26.5
2.6
2.3
9.9
9.3
2.3
2.2
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,683
-
9,950
2,713
3,141
13.7
13.5
127.8
145.7
36.6
32.1
8.6
7.0
25.9
23.9
3.4
2.8
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
260
341
2,617
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
30.3
20.5
3.5
3.0
11.4
14.8
0.6
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
253
-
3,862
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
17.5
15.1
2.7
2.3
15.2
15.3
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Neutral
643
-
1,482
1,536
1,683
9.6
10.0
41.8
48.0
15.4
13.4
2.6
2.3
18.2
18.3
0.7
0.6
Hitachi
Neutral
1,407
-
3,825
1,806
2,112
9.0
9.2
28.6
29.1
49.2
48.4
12.2
9.9
28.1
22.6
2.2
1.9
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
296
-
5,354
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
40.6
34.9
5.2
4.9
13.3
14.4
3.2
2.7
MRF
Neutral
45,669
-
19,369
20,727
14,841
19.3
18.6
4,905.8
3,351.9
9.3
13.6
3.0
2.4
37.6
19.6
0.9
1.2
Page Industries
Neutral
14,263
-
15,909
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
62.0
47.7
27.4
19.0
52.1
47.1
8.3
6.5
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
574
-
6,894
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
29.9
22.9
7.3
5.6
27.7
27.8
4.0
3.2
Siyaram Silk Mills
Neutral
1,244
-
1,166
1,653
1,873
11.7
12.2
99.3
122.1
12.5
10.2
2.3
1.9
19.5
20.2
0.9
0.8
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
835
-
1,468
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
26.1
20.3
2.7
2.4
10.7
12.4
1.1
1.0
Tree House
Accumulate
399
433
1,689
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
23.5
18.4
2.4
2.1
10.1
11.5
6.4
5.3
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
2,999
-
2,296
2,112
2,389
11.9
12.1
168.5
202.5
17.8
14.8
6.1
4.6
39.6
35.5
1.2
1.0
HSIL
Buy
313
434
2,265
2,085
2,436
18.5
18.6
21.7
28.9
14.5
10.8
1.5
1.3
10.0
12.1
1.2
1.0
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
327
-
4,730
2,779
3,314
10.3
11.9
12.0
17.5
27.3
18.7
3.3
3.0
12.5
16.7
1.4
1.1
Ltd
M M Forgings
Accumulate
693
783
836
586
671
22.3
22.9
53.4
65.2
13.0
10.6
2.8
2.2
24.1
23.5
1.6
1.3
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
125
-
893
1,196
1,370
9.7
11.8
9.4
14.3
13.4
8.8
1.3
1.2
10.4
14.5
0.7
0.6
Competent Automobiles Neutral
224
-
138
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
9.5
7.9
1.3
1.2
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
976
-
1,456
1,947
2,131
8.1
8.3
35.7
45.9
27.4
21.3
2.7
2.4
10.3
12.1
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Neutral
166
-
264
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
7.0
5.1
0.7
0.6
10.1
12.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Accumulate
270
293
2,047
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
18.8
14.8
2.9
2.5
15.4
17.1
0.8
0.7
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
89
-
968
1,452
1,596
13.7
14.7
4.2
6.2
21.4
14.3
1.7
1.5
8.1
11.2
1.0
0.8
Surya Roshni
Neutral
150
-
656
2,992
3,223
8.4
8.7
15.2
19.3
9.8
7.8
1.0
0.9
10.1
11.5
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Accumulate
123
141
489
275
355
18.3
17.3
7.4
8.8
16.6
13.9
3.3
2.9
20.2
21.1
1.7
1.3
Radico Khaitan
Buy
94
112
1,253
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
17.4
14.3
1.4
1.3
8.0
9.0
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
298
390
652
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
12.9
10.7
1.8
1.6
14.1
14.8
0.8
0.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 04, 2015
Market Outlook
August 05, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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