Market Outlook
September 11, 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.4)
(97)
25,622
Indian markets are expected to open on a Positive note tracking the SGX Nifty and
most of global markets.
Nifty
(0.4)
(30)
7,788
MID CAP
0.7
68
10,503
The US markets remained volatile throughout Thursday’s trading session but largely
SMALL CAP
(0.4)
(43)
10,632
managed to maintain a positive bias. Traders also reacted to U.S. economic data
BSE HC
(0.1)
(10)
16,892
that included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The report showed that jobless claims
BSE PSU
(0.8)
(50)
6,598
were in-line with estimates, coming in at 275,000.
BANKEX
(0.1)
(25)
18,994
The European markets closed in the negative territory after 3-session winning streak
AUTO
0.7
123
17,699
on Thursday. The pull back was attributed to profit taking, after the recent run up in
METAL
(0.8)
(56)
7,310
equities. Disappointing economic data from China where inflation accelerated to
OIL & GAS
(0.2)
(15)
8,648
2.0% in August as compared to 1.6% in July on soaring food prices.
BSE IT
(0.7)
(82)
10,980
The Indian markets dipped on account of profit booking on Thursday after rallying
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
sharply in the previous two sessions. Sustained capital outflows by foreign funds,
Dow Jones
0.5
77
16,330
monsoon concerns, disappointment over the delay in enacting the Goods and
NASDAQ
0.8
40
4,796
Services Tax (GST) Bill and news that Standard & Poor's has downgraded Brazil's
FTSE
(1.2)
(73)
6,156
investment-grade rating to BB+ also weighed on the markets.
Nikkei
(2.5)
(471)
18,300
Hang Sang
(2.6)
(569)
21,563
News & Result Analysis
Straits Times
(1.4)
(40)
2,888
August Auto sales
Shanghai Com
(1.4)
(45)
3,198
Wonderla Holiodays to invest `300cr to set up amusement park in Tamil Nadu
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Indian ADR
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 25,548 / 7,762 levels. If NIFTY trades above
INFY
1.9
0.3
$17.6
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up
WIT
1.5
0.2
$11.6
to 25,808 - 25,994 / 7,846 - 7,904 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
IBN
(0.5)
(0.0)
$8.4
25,548 / 7,762 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
HDB
0.5
0.3
$57.2
25,362 - 25,102 / 7,704 - 7,621 levels.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
Advances
1,080
1,245
SENSEX
25,102
25,362
25,548
25,808
25,994
Declines
1,543
284
NIFTY
7,621
7,704
7,762
7,846
7,904
Unchanged
102
49
Net Inflows (September 09, 2015)
Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
BSE
2,500
FII
4,141
4,559
(418)
(5,514)
118,246
NSE
15,364
MFs
1,477
444
1,033
4,182
74,830
FII Derivatives (September 10, 2015)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,768
2,042
(273)
22,343
Stock Futures
2,360
2,048
312
45,765
Gainers / Losers
Gainer
Loser
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
WOCKPHARMA
1,316
8.1
SUNTV
344
(7.3)
BAJAJ-AUTO
1,218
6.9
SUNASIAN
148
(5.0)
WELCORP
105
6.4
TORNTPHARM
1,418
(4.8)
FORTIS
167
6.4
COX&KINGS
218
(4.7)
CONCOR
1,492
6.3
UPL
496
(4.5)
Market Outlook
September 11, 2015
Passenger car sales up by 6% in August, Two-wheelers struggle
The passenger car sales managed to post a decent growth rate of 6% yoy in the
month of August as per the data released by Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers (Siam). The MHCV which account for
~40% of the total
Commercial Vehicle sales posted growth of 35% yoy during the period while light
commercial performance remain subdued resulting in total Commercial Vehicle
sales growth of 7.6% yoy. Owing to poor monsoon and dampened rural
sentiment, Two-wheelers sales declined by 3% yoy. Amongst the Two-wheelers,
scooters sales grew by 16% yoy while motorcycle sales declined by close to
10% yoy.
Wonderla Holiodays to invest `300cr to set up amusement park
in Tamil Nadu
Wonderla Holidays Ltd has signed Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with
the Government of Tamil Nadu to set up a large scale amusement park at
Chennai. As per the MOU the government of Tamil Nadu will facilitate speedy
clearance to the project through single window clearance and will provide
uninterrupted power and water supply. The company has been alotted land for the
same and it proposes to make an investment of `300cr in the project over a
period of next three years. The Company proposes to fund the project through
combination of debt (~`120cr)and internal accruals. We maintain our Buy rating
on the stock.
Economic and Political News
Domestic car sales rise 6% in August
Trai to come out with recommendations on call drops by Oct 15
Gold monetisation scheme: 2% interest likely on gold deposits
Corporate News
BPCL to spend `1 lakh crore in next 5 years: S Varadarajan
Sun Pharma looking to divest Ireland plant
Tata Motors, Total Lubrifiants sign pact for lubricants supply
Market Outlook
September 11, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Aurobindo
Pharma
41,546
Buy
711
872
22.6
Axis Bank
Financials
1,14,797
Buy
483
701
45.1
ICICI Bank
Financials
1,55,277
Buy
267
370
38.3
Infosys
IT
2,48,150
Buy
1,080
1,306
20.9
Inox Wind
Capital Goods
8,444
Buy
381
505
32.7
LIC HFL
Financials
21,690
Buy
430
570
32.6
Power Grid
Power
64,375
Buy
123
170
38.2
TCS
IT
4,97,977
Buy
2,542
3,168
24.6
Tech Mahindra IT
51,329
Buy
534
646
21.1
Yes Bank
Financials
29,841
Buy
713
953
33.6
Sun Pharma
Pharma
2,02,201 Accumulate
840
950
13.1
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
Others
2,436
Buy
242
341
41.2
Garware Wall RopesOthers
613
Buy
280
390
39.2
JK Tyre
Auto Ancillary
2,410
Buy
106
129
21.4
MBL Infrastructures Construction
1,004
Buy
242
360
48.6
Minda Industries
Auto Ancillary
809
Buy
510
652
27.8
MT Educare
Others
492
Buy
124
169
36.8
Radico Khaitan
Others
1,133
Buy
85
112
31.5
Surya Roshni
Others
510
Buy
116
183
57.3
Tree House
Others
1,608
Buy
380
449
18.2
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Market Outlook
September 11, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
7.5
7.5
5.0
3.8
8.0
3.6
3.4
7.0
7.0
4.0
2.8
6.7
6.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
7.0
6.3
6.4
6.6
3.0
2.0
6.0
0.5
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
8.0
7.0
54.0
7.0
5.6
5.4
6.0
5.2
5.4
5.3
5.0
52.0
4.6
4.9
5.0
4.3
3.8
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 11, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.3
4.9
4.7
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.7
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
0.7
(2.6)
(4.6)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
5.2
6.0
4.8
3.7
3.1
4.0
2.7
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.0
2.0
(3.8)
(1.0)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 11, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
46,504
(5.8)
(13.7)
(23.4)
Russia
Micex
1,719
1.2
4.0
17.1
India
Nifty
7,788
(8.0)
(2.4)
(3.8)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,198
(18.2)
(37.1)
43.7
South Africa
Top 40
44,026
(5.6)
(4.8)
(5.0)
Mexico
Mexbol
42,889
(3.4)
(4.0)
(6.5)
Indonesia
LQ45
731
(5.7)
(14.7)
(16.9)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,614
(2.4)
(7.0)
(13.6)
Thailand
SET 50
908
(2.2)
(7.4)
(13.0)
USA
Dow Jones
16,330
(7.3)
(9.3)
(4.2)
UK
FTSE
6,156
(8.6)
(10.1)
(9.6)
Japan
Nikkei
18,300
(11.7)
(10.2)
16.8
Germany
DAX
10,210
(9.6)
(8.8)
5.3
France
CAC
4,597
(9.9)
(6.2)
4.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 11, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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