Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open positively tracking the SGX Nifty and the Asian
BSE Sensex
0.9
234
27,080
peers.
Nifty
0.7
60
8,190
US stocks extended gains after minutes of the Fed meeting indicated it may hold
Mid Cap
(0.1)
(7)
10,938
rates for now. Further, the disappointing jobs data also reaffirmed Fed’s decision to
Small Cap
0.2
21
11,349
keep status quo. The markets ended 3.3% higher in the week making it the best
weekly gains in 2015.
Bankex
0.5
102
20,059
European indices ended higher after a rally in the global stocks and oil prices,
following the US Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The rally was also
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
fuelled by mining companies post announcement by Glencore stating it would curb
Dow Jones
0.2
34
17,084
zinc production.
Nasdaq
0.4
20
4,831
Indian shares closed in the green amid strong global cues. Global markets rallied
FTSE
0.7
41
6,416
after the US Federal Reserve meeting which suggested that the central bank will
Nikkei
1.6
297
18,439
postpone the rate increase. The Fed has held its benchmark interest rates near zero
Hang Seng
0.5
104
22,459
since December 2008 which encouraged investments in the emerging markets.
Shanghai Com
1.3
40
3,183
News & Result Analysis
Tata Motors (JLR) to invest USD 2 Billion in Slovakia
Advances / Declines
Bse
Nse
Result Preview: Infosys
Advances
1,471
1,019
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
1,321
482
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
116
68
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg4 onwards
BSE
3,092
NSE
16,134
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
490
701
43.1
FII
801
897
118,962
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
286
370
29.4
MFs
157
634
79,639
Power Grid
Power
Buy
132
170
28.4
TCS
IT
Buy
2,630
3,168
20.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Aurobindo Pharma Pharmaceuticals Accumulate
788
872
10.7
Vedl
104
11.6
More Top Picks on Pg3
Il&Fstrans
42
11.3
Key Upcoming Events
Sreinfra
53
11.0
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Suzlon
24
8.1
Oct 12
India
Imports YoY%
(9.95)
--
Nationalum
39
7.2
India
Exports YoY%
(20.66)
--
India
Industrial Production YoY
4.20
--
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Oct 13
UK
CPI (YoY)
--
--
Jubilant
374
(4.5)
Oct 14
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
(4.95)
--
Gppl
199
(4.5)
Oct 15
US
Industrial Production
(0.38)
(0.30)
Pmcfin
1
(4.3)
Ceatltd
1,215
(4.0)
Unitdspr
3,180
(3.7)
As on October 09, 2015
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Tata Motors-owned JLR to invest US$ 2 billion in Slovakia
Tata Motors' Jaguar Land Rover will invest USD 2 billion to build a plant in Slovak
Republic. The company is doing a "feasibility study" with the Slovakian government
to explore plans for a factory with an installed capacity of up to 3,00,000 vehicles
over the next decade. The proposed plant will manufacture aluminium Jaguar
Land Rover vehicles and start production in 2018.
Slovakia would be JLR’s fourth manufacturing facility and second plant in the
European region. It currently has manufacturing plants in UK and China apart
from its upcoming factory in Brazil. JLR expansion of manufacturing footprint
would enable it to bring down the costs (due to localization and proximity to the
customers) enabling it to expand the customer base. We currently have
Accumulate rating on the stock.
Result Preview
Infosys (CMP: `1,168/ TP: `1,306/Upside: 11.8%)
Infosys is slated to announce its 2QFY2016 results today. We expect the company
to post 3.7% sequential growth in USD revenues to US$2,339mn. In rupee terms,
revenues are expected to come in at `15,204cr, up 5.9% qoq. EBITDA margin is
expected to show an expansion of ~139bp qoq to 27.6% on account of strong
growth. EBIT is expected to come in at 25.5% V/s 24.0%, a qoq expansion of
~151bps. Consequently, PAT is expected to be at `3,345cr, a rise of 10.4% qoq.
Key points to watch out for are: 1) Any revision in the USD revenue growth
guidance for FY2016 which has been set at 10-12% on CC and 7.2-9.2% in US$ ,
2) client budget outlook, and 4) growth versus margin tradeoffs. We maintain our
accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,306.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2015E
60,250
28.0
13,383
58.3
20.9
20.0
4.2
13.4
3.8
FY2016E
66,999
28.0
14,629
63.7
19.7
18.3
3.6
11.5
3.2
Economic and Political News
Piyush Goyal to meet PSBs to discuss stressed assets
Sept consumer inflation seen picking up from record low
Railways to provide dustbins in all 60,000 coaches soon: Prabhu
Passenger car sales up 9.48% in September: SIAM
Corporate News
Aurobindo gets USFDA final nod for anti-psychotic tablets
Future Group partners Baba Ramdev's Patanjali Ayurved
SpiceJet to add six new aircraft, 41 more flights
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Robust US sales along with the acquisations, will aid the growth
Aurobindo
46,013
788
872
10.7
and stable margins.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
1,16,598
490
701
43.1
network.
Robust franchise and capital adequacy position will help the
ICICI Bank
1,66,158
286
370
29.4
bank to outperform the industry average.
Back on the growth trend; expect a long term growth of 14% to
Infosys
2,68,249
1,168
1,306
11.8
be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Government thrust on Renewable sector and strong order book
Inox Wind
8,148
367
505
37.6
would drive future growth.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
LIC HFL
24,151
479
570
19.0
with improvement in asset quality.
Direct beneficiary of the huge investments lined up in the power
Power Grid
69,214
132
170
28.4
transmission sector.
Growth to pick up from 2HFY2017, attractive given the risk-
TCS
5,18,193
2,630
3,168
20.5
reward.
Tech Mahindra
53,915
560
646
15.4
Acquisitions, to drive growth, normalised valuations attractive.
An improving liability franchise, capital adequacy well above
Yes Bank
30,369
725
953
31.4
Basel III requirements and lowest NPA ratio in the industry.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
2,430
241
341
41.5
Visible turnaround in E&P business to drive the earnings.
Garware Wall Ropes
814
343
390
13.7
Higher exports & easing material prices to drive profitability.
Comfortable balance sheet to support strong growth; this
MBL Infrastructures
1,004
242
360
48.8
coupled with attractive valuation to lead to rerating.
New product introductions and increased sourcing by clients to
Minda Industries
797
502
652
29.9
enable outpace industry growth.
Strong brand & quality teaching with innovative technologies &
MT Educare
544
137
169
23.4
higher government educational spending to boost growth.
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and favorable
Radico Khaitan
1,135
85
112
31.8
pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers provides
additional comfort.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
600
137
183
33.6
drive growth.
Tree House
1,260
298
449
50.7
Robust expansion plan for pre-schools to drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Infosys Ltd Consol - October 12, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16E
2QFY15
y-o-y (%)
1QFY16
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
15,235
13,342
14.2
14,354
6.1
EBITDA
4,164
3,774
10.3
3,760
10.7
EBITDA margin (%)
27.3
28.3
26.2
Net profit
3,277
3,096
5.9
3,030
8.2
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd Consol - October 13, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16E
2QFY15
y-o-y (%)
1QFY16
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
27,275
23,816
14.5
25,668
6.3
EBITDA
7,884
6,809
15.8
7,202
9.5
EBITDA margin (%)
28.9
28.6
28.1
Net profit
6,041
5,244
15.2
5,684
6.3
Hindustan Unilever Ltd - October 14, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16E
2QFY15
y-o-y (%)
1QFY16
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
7,981
7,466
6.9
7,973
0.1
EBITDA
1,443
1,242
16.2
1,506
(4.2)
EBITDA margin (%)
18.1
16.6
18.9
Net profit
1,046
988
5.9
1,059
(1.2)
LIC Housing Finance Ltd - October 14, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16E
2QFY15
y-o-y (%)
1QFY16
q-o-q (%)
PAT
407
341
19.1
382
6.4
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Oct 12, 2015
Infosys
Oct 13, 2015
TCS
Oct 14, 2015
HUL
Oct 15, 2015
LIC Housing Fin., Mindtree, Infotech Enterprises, D B Corp
Oct 16, 2015
Reliance Industries
Oct 17, 2015
South Ind.Bank
Oct 18, 2015
Oct 19, 2015
UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, Hind. Zinc, Petronet LNG, Heritage Foods
Oct 20, 2015
Hero Motocorp, ACC, Federal Bank, Mphasis, Jyothy Laboratories, Aventis
Oct 21, 2015
M&M, Bajaj Auto, HDFC Bank, Wipro, KPIT Cummins, NIIT, JSW Steel , Cairn India
Oct 22, 2015
Cadila Healthcare
Oct 23, 2015
Asian Paints
Oct 24, 2015
Godrej Consumer, Persistent
Oct 25, 2015
Oct 26, 2015
Blue Star, HDFC, Hindustan Media Ventures, Hitachi
Oct 27, 2015
Thermax, Axis Bank
Oct 28, 2015
Amara Raja Batteries, Ambuja Cements, Dabur India, HT Media, Kirloskar Engines India Ltd, Elecon Engineering
Oct 29, 2015
Nestle, Colgate, L G Balakrishnan & Bros, Dr Reddy's, Dishman Pharma
Oct 30, 2015
Apollo Tyres, Subros, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mah. Bank, Indoco Remedies
Oct 31, 2015
IDFC, GSK Pharma
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Oct 12, 2015
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(9.95)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(20.66)
--
5:30PM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
4.20
4.80
Oct 13, 2015 2:00PM UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Sep
--
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(5.50)
(6.00)
Oct 14, 2015 2:00PM UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Sep
1.20
(2.15)
12:00PM India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Sep
(4.95)
(4.35)
7:00AM China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.00
1.80
Oct 15, 2015 6:00PM US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Oct 8
263.00
270.00
6:00PM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
(0.10)
(0.20)
Oct 16, 2015 6:45PM US
Industrial Production
%
Sep
(0.38)
(0.30)
2:30PM Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Sep F
(0.10)
(0.10)
Oct 19, 2015 7:30AM China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Sep
6.10
6.00
7:30AM China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
7.00
6.80
Oct 20, 2015 6:00PM US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Sep
1,126.00
1,130.00
6:00PM US
Building permits
Thousands
Sep
1,170.00
1,155.00
Oct 22, 2015 7:30PM Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Oct A
(7.10)
--
7:30PM US
Existing home sales
Million
Sep
5.31
5.34
5:15PM Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Oct 22
0.05
--
Oct 23, 2015 1:00PM Germany
PMI Services
Value
Oct P
54.10
--
1:00PM Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Oct P
52.30
--
Oct 26, 2015 7:30PM US
New home sales
Thousands
Sep
552.00
--
Oct 27, 2015 3:00PM UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q A
2.40
--
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Key Upcoming Events
7:30PM US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Oct
103.04
--
Oct 28, 2015 11:30PM US
FOMC rate decision
%
Oct 28
0.25
0.25
Oct 29, 2015 2:25PM Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Oct
2.00
--
6:00PM US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
3Q A
3.90
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
5.0
4.4
4.2
8.0
7.5
7.5
3.6
4.0
3.0
7.0
7.0
2.6
2.8
6.7
6.7
2.5
2.5
7.0
6.4
6.6
3.0
6.3
2.0
6.0
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.4
5.3
4.9
5.0
54.0
5.0
4.6
4.3
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
46.0
1.0
44.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
5.00
(10.0)
4.00
(20.0)
3.00
(30.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.3
4.9
4.7
4.0
2.8
2.7
2.4
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.1
0.8
-
(2.0)
(2.6)
(4.0)
(4.6)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
5.2
6.0
4.8
3.7
3.1
4.0
2.7
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.0
2.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(1.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
49,338
5.7
(6.2)
(13.6)
Russia
Micex
1,728
0.3
5.2
25.3
India
Nifty
8,190
7.0
(2.1)
2.8
China
Shanghai Composite
3,183
1.7
(12.6)
37.5
South Africa
Top 40
47,810
8.4
4.2
11.6
Mexico
Mexbol
44,376
3.0
(1.2)
0.7
Indonesia
LQ45
789
8.5
(5.8)
(4.8)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,707
7.8
(0.3)
(7.3)
Thailand
SET 50
921
1.2
(4.8)
(12.8)
USA
Dow Jones
17,084
5.1
(3.8)
3.3
UK
FTSE
6,416
3.0
(3.9)
0.8
Japan
Nikkei
18,439
3.6
(9.5)
14.0
Germany
DAX
10,097
(2.0)
(12.1)
14.9
France
CAC
4,701
0.8
(5.9)
19.3
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
October 12, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
213
-
4,148
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
22.5
19.4
4.5
3.9
21.1
21.3
2.0
1.8
United Phosphorus
Accumulate
453
510
19,405
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
14.1
11.8
2.8
2.3
21.4
21.3
1.5
1.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
92
102
26,225
18,763
22,357
11.1
11.2
3.6
4.8
25.6
19.2
4.7
4.4
18.7
22.6
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,444
-
70,726
23,544
27,245
19.8
19.8
127.0
143.4
19.3
17.0
5.8
5.0
30.3
29.4
2.6
2.2
Eicher Motors
Buy
18,318
22,859
49,720
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
51.1
32.5
15.4
11.4
29.8
34.9
4.1
3.1
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,565
-
51,225
28,500
32,764
14.1
14.3
146.9
167.0
17.5
15.4
6.6
5.6
37.8
36.5
1.6
1.4
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
438
-
688
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
12.2
10.5
1.7
1.5
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,269
1,357
78,835
37,986
42,660
12.8
13.2
51.6
61.9
24.6
20.5
3.6
3.2
14.6
15.6
1.7
1.5
Maruti
Buy
4,273
4,960
129,073
58,102
68,587
16.7
16.9
182.0
225.5
23.5
19.0
4.7
4.0
19.9
21.0
2.0
1.6
Minda Industries
Buy
500
652
793
2,567
2,965
7.3
8.0
38.8
54.3
12.9
9.2
1.9
1.6
14.4
16.8
0.4
0.3
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
307
366
243
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
12.9
10.9
1.8
1.7
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
232
-
620
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
27.6
14.7
2.9
2.5
10.4
16.9
1.5
1.2
Tata Motors
Accumulate
356
395
102,756
264,038
297,882
13.8
13.9
34.5
38.9
10.3
9.2
1.7
1.5
17.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Neutral
239
-
11,336
11,702
13,713
6.8
7.7
10.1
14.5
23.6
16.5
5.8
4.7
24.5
28.3
1.0
0.8
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
988
-
16,873
5,101
6,224
17.8
17.6
31.1
39.2
31.8
25.2
7.9
6.3
24.8
24.8
3.3
2.6
Exide Industries
Neutral
152
-
12,924
7,363
8,247
13.7
14.5
6.6
7.7
23.0
19.8
2.9
2.6
12.6
13.3
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
188
-
9,570
12,576
12,978
16.8
16.1
22.3
19.9
8.4
9.5
1.5
1.3
17.2
13.4
0.8
0.9
Ceat
Neutral
1,215
-
4,915
6,041
6,597
14.3
14.2
101.5
116.6
12.0
10.4
2.4
2.0
20.0
19.1
1.0
0.8
JK Tyres
Neutral
103
-
2,326
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.2
5.6
1.3
1.1
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
874
-
1,086
593
677
14.5
14.8
51.2
60.8
17.1
14.4
4.0
3.6
23.3
24.8
1.7
1.4
Subros
Neutral
77
-
461
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
20.8
11.6
1.4
1.3
6.8
11.4
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
184
-
482
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
14.2
11.9
3.1
2.6
21.8
21.6
1.4
1.2
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
41
-
401
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
40.6
10.4
1.3
1.1
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,248
-
5,199
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
42.8
19.4
2.4
2.2
5.7
11.7
1.7
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
116
-
836
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.9
9.4
0.7
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
202
-
49,454
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
19.2
14.2
1.4
1.3
7.0
9.0
1.5
1.5
Blue Star
Accumulate
343
387
3,082
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
37.5
23.3
6.8
6.4
9.1
17.5
0.9
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
178
204
11,181
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
39.6
25.1
2.8
2.6
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
366
505
8,126
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.8
11.6
4.1
3.0
35.0
30.0
1.8
1.4
Stock Watch
October 12, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
143
-
3,666
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
26.4
17.4
2.6
2.4
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
857
-
10,212
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
28.1
21.8
4.3
3.8
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
1,349
1,548
25,334
11,856
14,092
14.5
17.8
47.6
76.1
28.4
17.7
2.9
2.7
10.6
15.7
2.0
1.6
Ambuja Cements
Accumulate
209
233
32,458
10,569
12,022
20.7
22.2
8.7
10.7
24.0
19.6
3.1
2.9
13.0
15.2
2.7
2.3
India Cements
Buy
77
112
2,374
4,716
5,133
15.9
16.9
3.7
7.5
20.9
10.3
0.8
0.7
3.8
7.3
0.8
0.7
JK Cement
Buy
651
767
4,549
4,056
4,748
14.5
17.0
22.6
41.1
28.8
15.8
2.6
2.3
9.3
15.3
1.6
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Accumulate
384
430
4,522
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
33.4
14.1
3.2
2.7
9.8
20.8
1.9
1.6
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
224
-
597
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
26.6
8.6
1.1
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Neutral
176
-
3,600
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
22.8
15.8
3.3
2.8
13.3
15.7
2.7
1.9
Ramco Cements
Neutral
336
-
7,998
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
22.3
17.9
2.7
2.4
12.9
14.3
2.5
2.1
Shree Cement^
Neutral
12,453
-
43,384
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
54.6
36.1
8.0
6.7
15.7
20.3
5.8
4.7
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,814
3,282
77,212
27,562
31,548
20.4
22.3
111.9
143.3
25.2
19.6
3.6
3.1
15.2
16.8
2.9
2.5
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
95
-
3,133
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
1.0
5.0
95.3
19.1
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4
3.9
3.7
KNR Constructions
Neutral
579
-
1,627
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
28.5
15.6
2.6
2.3
9.6
15.6
1.9
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,546
2,013
143,890
68,920
82,446
10.9
11.5
57.0
73.0
27.1
21.2
2.5
2.3
13.6
15.5
2.3
1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
199
-
9,623
721
784
53.1
53.6
8.2
9.1
24.2
21.9
3.9
3.2
20.0
18.3
12.9
11.5
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
242
360
1,004
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
12.8
12.1
1.3
1.2
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
75
-
4,169
7,892
8,842
8.3
9.1
2.4
5.3
31.3
14.2
1.3
1.2
4.2
8.6
0.8
0.6
PNC Infratech
Neutral
525
-
2,692
1,798
2,132
13.2
13.5
22.0
30.0
23.9
17.5
2.1
1.9
11.5
11.4
1.6
1.4
Simplex Infra
Neutral
335
-
1,658
6,241
7,008
10.4
10.7
20.0
36.0
16.8
9.3
1.4
1.2
6.8
11.1
0.8
0.7
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
78
-
4,451
8,438
9,521
2.8
2.8
21.9
27.0
3.6
2.9
0.4
0.3
10.2
11.5
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
490
701
116,598
26,941
32,298
3.5
3.6
37.4
46.4
13.1
10.6
2.7
2.3
18.7
20.0
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
182
-
42,005
19,027
21,737
1.9
2.0
16.9
24.5
10.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
9.1
12.1
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
145
-
9,618
16,438
18,706
1.9
2.0
19.2
40.9
7.5
3.5
0.4
0.4
4.5
9.1
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
298
-
16,187
15,491
17,269
2.0
2.0
61.6
70.9
4.8
4.2
0.6
0.5
10.5
11.1
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
42
-
2,346
3,498
3,977
2.1
2.3
7.8
10.7
5.4
3.9
0.4
0.4
6.5
8.4
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
64
-
11,037
3,527
4,135
3.0
3.1
5.2
6.7
12.4
9.6
1.3
1.2
10.8
12.7
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,291
-
203,631
10,883
12,799
3.5
3.4
43.0
50.6
30.1
25.5
6.0
5.4
25.9
26.7
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,086
1,255
273,425
38,059
46,851
4.4
4.5
50.0
62.7
21.7
17.3
3.8
3.2
18.8
20.2
-
-
Stock Watch
October 12, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
ICICI Bank
Buy
286
370
166,158
35,810
41,871
3.4
3.5
22.0
26.2
13.0
10.9
2.3
1.9
15.0
15.6
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
79
-
12,663
9,860
10,978
1.8
1.9
9.3
15.6
8.5
5.1
0.6
0.5
6.4
10.1
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
140
-
6,729
6,267
7,171
2.4
2.5
25.4
32.1
5.5
4.4
0.5
0.4
8.0
9.3
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
479
570
24,151
2,934
3,511
2.3
2.3
30.9
36.8
15.5
13.0
2.5
2.2
16.8
17.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
145
-
4,348
7,730
8,595
2.4
2.5
38.8
47.4
3.7
3.1
0.3
0.3
8.6
9.8
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
138
-
25,611
23,446
26,624
2.8
2.9
17.8
27.5
7.8
5.0
0.8
0.6
8.5
12.1
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
22
-
2,997
1,930
2,215
2.4
2.4
2.6
3.6
8.5
6.2
0.9
0.8
9.9
12.5
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
243
307
184,010
83,847
96,307
2.8
2.8
20.1
25.1
12.1
9.7
1.3
1.2
11.5
13.1
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
182
-
11,581
12,755
14,439
2.3
2.4
31.5
39.9
5.8
4.6
0.6
0.5
9.9
11.6
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
36
-
3,123
3,594
3,969
1.8
1.9
5.8
7.1
6.2
5.1
0.5
0.5
8.2
9.3
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
725
953
30,369
7,204
9,078
3.2
3.2
57.8
69.5
12.6
10.4
2.2
1.9
19.6
22.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
854
-
81,882
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
48.3
39.7
12.8
11.5
29.4
31.2
4.8
4.1
Britannia
Neutral
3,223
-
38,671
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
68.3
49.2
22.7
21.5
38.3
41.2
4.6
4.0
Colgate
Neutral
932
-
25,356
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
19.2
17.5
14.1
12.3
99.8
97.5
5.1
4.5
Dabur India
Neutral
279
-
48,989
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
38.0
34.4
11.5
9.3
33.7
30.6
5.1
4.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,039
-
25,398
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
35.9
31.6
10.2
8.7
28.8
28.9
4.7
4.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,257
-
42,795
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
39.2
32.7
8.0
7.4
19.7
21.0
4.3
3.4
HUL
Neutral
817
-
176,831
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
39.3
33.1
43.7
34.9
110.5
114.2
4.9
4.3
ITC
Buy
343
409
275,509
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
24.7
21.6
8.3
7.3
34.1
33.8
6.3
5.7
Marico
Neutral
400
-
25,813
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
38.6
32.0
11.2
9.3
33.2
32.4
3.9
3.3
Nestle*
Neutral
6,403
-
61,738
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
40.3
34.7
21.1
18.9
55.0
57.3
5.3
4.6
Tata Global
Accumulate
135
144
8,494
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
20.7
17.7
2.1
2.0
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
849
1,132
119,352
42,038
47,503
23.5
23.5
56.4
62.9
15.1
13.5
3.5
2.7
23.2
19.8
2.4
2.0
Infosys
Accumulate
1,168
1,306
268,249
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
20.0
18.3
4.2
3.6
20.9
19.7
3.8
3.2
TCS
Buy
2,630
3,168
518,193
108,420
123,559
28.8
28.7
127.2
143.9
20.7
18.3
8.2
7.6
39.9
41.8
4.4
3.8
Tech Mahindra
Buy
560
646
53,903
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
21.3
17.6
3.8
3.3
17.9
18.6
1.9
1.6
Wipro
Buy
592
719
146,279
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
15.4
14.0
3.0
2.7
19.5
18.0
2.4
2.0
Media
D B Corp
Buy
309
356
5,677
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.2
12.1
3.7
3.3
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
80
-
1,857
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.3
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.2
Stock Watch
October 12, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
145
156
4,740
1,939
2,122
26.0
26.0
8.3
9.2
17.5
15.8
3.0
2.7
17.5
17.1
2.4
2.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
352
-
13,888
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
15.5
12.9
3.8
3.4
26.7
28.3
4.8
4.1
Hindustan Media
Accumulate
268
292
1,967
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
14.0
12.8
2.3
2.0
16.4
15.3
1.7
1.5
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
336
400
212,009
72,015
78,415
21.2
21.5
21.7
25.3
15.5
13.3
5.3
5.2
33.1
39.1
2.2
2.0
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
151
-
63,676
15,258
16,495
44.2
45.6
17.6
19.2
8.6
7.9
1.3
1.2
15.9
15.3
1.9
1.4
Hindalco
Neutral
84
-
17,274
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
12.5
7.6
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
911
-
22,018
48,125
53,595
18.8
21.0
46.9
97.5
19.4
9.3
0.9
0.9
4.4
9.5
1.3
1.1
NMDC
Neutral
96
-
38,121
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.7
8.2
1.1
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.4
3.4
SAIL
Neutral
56
-
23,108
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
37.1
12.8
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
104
-
30,714
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
8.0
5.4
0.6
0.5
7.2
8.9
0.9
0.7
Tata Steel
Neutral
251
-
24,353
136,805
149,228
11.3
11.9
26.4
36.8
9.5
6.8
0.8
0.7
6.0
8.0
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
169
-
31,601
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
8.1
8.2
0.5
0.5
6.4
6.1
1.9
1.2
GAIL
Neutral
311
-
39,481
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
13.0
10.8
1.1
1.0
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Neutral
263
-
225,138
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
9.2
8.1
1.2
1.1
12.7
13.5
1.7
1.6
Petronet LNG
Buy
182
210
13,665
39,007
40,785
3.8
4.2
9.2
11.0
19.9
16.6
2.2
2.0
11.6
12.7
0.4
0.4
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
399
455
96,948
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.4
8.2
1.3
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Neutral
886
-
287,038
313,085
362,904
13.1
13.8
78.4
92.9
11.3
9.5
1.2
1.1
10.8
11.6
1.4
1.2
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
724
-
13,640
2,601
3,115
21.2
20.2
20.8
23.9
34.8
30.3
11.2
8.4
37.2
31.8
5.3
4.3
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
788
872
46,013
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
20.6
18.1
6.4
4.8
36.0
30.2
3.4
2.9
Aventis*
Neutral
3,979
-
9,163
2,156
2,455
15.1
16.8
109.7
133.9
36.3
29.7
5.0
4.1
18.4
22.5
4.0
3.3
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
408
-
41,758
10,224
11,840
20.0
21.0
71.0
85.6
5.8
4.8
1.5
1.2
30.1
28.5
4.2
3.5
Cipla
Neutral
688
-
55,266
14,359
16,884
21.3
19.7
28.4
30.5
24.2
22.6
4.3
3.7
19.3
17.5
3.8
3.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,249
-
72,454
18,213
21,214
22.6
22.7
163.0
192.5
26.1
22.1
5.4
4.4
22.5
20.0
3.9
3.3
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
342
-
2,762
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
21.0
15.9
2.0
1.8
9.7
11.7
1.8
1.5
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,312
-
28,056
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.7
48.5
16.4
16.9
28.5
34.3
9.3
8.5
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
327
-
3,014
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
25.0
21.1
4.9
4.1
21.2
21.1
2.8
2.4
Ipca labs
Accumulate
724
800
9,128
3,507
4,078
17.6
18.6
25.8
32.0
28.0
22.6
3.6
3.1
13.8
14.9
2.9
2.5
Lupin
Neutral
2,056
-
92,539
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
33.1
28.9
8.0
6.4
27.4
24.6
6.0
5.0
Sun Pharma
Neutral
906
-
218,107
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
52.1
33.7
4.9
4.3
13.0
16.6
7.2
6.0
Stock Watch
October 12, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
70
-
18,851
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
17.2
13.5
1.3
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.5
1.4
NTPC
Buy
126
157
103,769
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
10.8
9.5
1.2
1.1
11.4
12.1
2.2
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
132
170
69,214
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.0
10.0
1.6
1.4
15.6
15.1
8.3
7.7
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
348
-
138,990
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
29.0
27.8
2.0
1.9
6.9
6.7
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
158
-
56,838
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
26.8
25.5
2.5
2.2
9.9
9.3
2.2
2.1
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,774
-
12,270
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
43.0
37.9
10.7
8.8
27.4
25.6
4.2
3.6
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
241
341
2,430
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
28.1
19.0
3.2
2.8
11.4
14.8
0.5
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
236
-
3,605
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
16.4
14.1
2.5
2.2
15.2
15.3
1.1
0.9
Goodyear India*
Buy
558
655
1,286
1,953
1,766
12.4
12.0
67.4
59.6
8.3
9.4
2.1
1.8
27.7
20.2
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,443
-
3,923
1,806
2,112
9.0
9.2
28.6
29.1
50.4
49.6
12.5
10.1
28.1
22.6
2.3
1.9
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
319
-
5,769
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
43.7
37.6
5.7
5.2
13.3
14.4
3.4
2.9
MRF
Accumulate
41,341
43,575
17,533
20,727
14,841
19.3
18.6
4,905.8
3,351.9
8.4
12.3
2.7
2.2
37.6
19.6
0.8
1.1
Page Industries
Neutral
14,243
-
15,886
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
62.0
47.6
27.3
19.0
52.1
47.1
8.3
6.5
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
549
-
6,593
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
28.5
21.9
7.0
5.4
27.7
27.8
3.8
3.1
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
986
1,221
924
1,653
1,873
11.7
12.2
99.3
122.1
9.9
8.1
1.8
1.5
19.5
20.2
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
755
-
1,328
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
23.6
18.4
2.4
2.2
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.9
Tree House
Buy
298
449
1,260
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
17.5
13.7
1.8
1.6
10.1
11.5
4.8
4.0
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,766
3,210
2,118
2,127
2,388
15.2
14.9
237.7
267.5
11.6
10.3
5.0
3.5
51.7
39.8
1.1
0.9
HSIL
Neutral
292
-
2,114
2,182
2,404
16.3
16.5
15.8
18.9
18.5
15.5
1.5
1.4
8.4
9.4
1.3
1.2
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
284
-
4,106
2,634
3,252
10.1
12.0
10.9
17.4
26.0
16.3
2.9
2.6
11.4
16.8
1.2
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
540
797
652
563
671
22.1
22.9
51.0
66.5
10.6
8.1
2.2
1.8
23.1
24.1
1.3
1.1
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
134
-
960
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
12.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
144
-
89
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
6.1
5.1
0.9
0.7
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
959
-
1,432
1,948
2,147
10.6
10.3
60.0
67.0
16.0
14.3
2.5
2.2
16.8
16.1
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Buy
143
166
226
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
6.0
4.4
0.6
0.5
10.1
12.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
296
-
2,255
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
20.6
16.2
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Buy
74
87
808
1,452
1,596
14.0
14.7
4.4
6.2
16.8
11.9
1.4
1.3
8.6
11.2
0.9
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
137
183
601
2,992
3,223
8.3
8.5
14.7
18.3
9.3
7.5
0.9
0.8
9.8
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Buy
137
169
544
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
17.7
14.6
3.7
3.3
20.2
21.1
1.8
1.4
Stock Watch
October 12, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
zOthers
Radico Khaitan
Buy
85
112
1,137
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
15.8
13.0
1.3
1.2
8.0
9.0
1.2
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
343
390
750
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
14.9
12.3
2.1
1.8
14.1
14.8
0.9
0.7
Wonderla Holidays
Accumulate
301
322
1,702
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
33.5
23.4
4.6
4.1
13.7
17.8
8.2
5.4
Linc Pen & Plastics
Accumulate
162
185
239
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
15.0
12.3
2.4
2.1
16.0
17.1
0.7
0.7
The Byke Hospitality
Accumulate
164
181
659
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
29.2
21.8
5.5
4.5
18.9
20.8
3.0
2.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 09, 2015
Market Outlook
October 12, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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