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July 19, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(3
5752
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a mild positive note however from
the word go it slipped lower forming an 'Open High' scenario and
after a gradual decline throughout the session ended with a loss of
0.43% tad above 35750.
In spite of a bullish breakout on Thursday above the 35810 levels;
the bank nifty disappointed on Friday with a lack of follow-up
buying. This was due to as Bank Nifty has reached a key
psychological level of 36000. We reiterate with our view that for
the next leg of broader market rally the banking space needs to
participate and the outperformance will only come when the bank
nifty sustains above the 36000 levels. Hence for the next few
sessions, 35900 - 36000 remains a key resistance whereas, on the
flip side, 35600 - 35300 are the immediate support. Traders are
advised to focus on stock-specific trades within this basket as with
the result season they may give outperforming opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 35600 Resistance 1 – 35900
Support 2 – 35300 Resistance 2 – 36000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (53140)
/ Nifty (15923)
During the last week, market started on a pleasant note on Monday
owing to slightly cheerful mood across the globe. However on the
same day, all of a sudden market took a nosedive and before anyone
could realize Nifty was retesting 15650 levels. Fortunately 15650
once again acted as a sheet anchor to restrict the sudden
hiccup. During the remaining part of the week, Nifty continued its
slow and steady march to conclude at the highest point. In the
process, it added nearly one and half a percent gains to the previous
weekly close.
In last month or so, market made several attempts to go pass the
level of 15910; but on every occasion, markets struggled at higher
levels. Finally on the weekly expiry day, this sturdy wall was breached
and that too on a closing basis. In fact, although there was no follow
up buying seen, the week concluded at a new high which certainly
bodes well for the bulls. Now, 16000 is merely a formality and if there
is no aberration on the global front, we would see market reaching
the millstone in the first half of this week itself. After this, 16200 is
the next level to watch out for. We reiterate that if this assumption
has to turn into reality, the banking needs to contribute and hence,
all eyes on BANKNIFTY. The moment it traverses the 36000 mark, we
would see NIFTY hastening beyond the magical figure of 16000. On
the flipside, 15800 followed by 15630 are to be seen as key supports.
One needs to keep in mind that any sustainable move below 15630
would apply brakes on the ongoing optimism and we may then see
some corrective moves in the market in the short term. During the
week, the stellar move in IT space lifted the markets higher from the
lower levels. Also, the broader end of the spectrum too did extremely
well. One can certainly continue with a stock centric approach and
keep a tab on all the above mentioned scenarios.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 15900 Resistance 1 – 16000
Support 2 – 15850 Resistance 2 – 16080
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 19, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
15550
15600
15650
15700
15750
15800
15850
15900
15950
92,000
94,000
96,000
98,000
100,000
102,000
104,000
106,000
108,000
110,000
6/25 6/29 7/1 7/5 7/7 7/9 7/13 7/15
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post some hiccup on Monday, Nifty has slowly inched
higher throughout the week and has ended the week
above 15900.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 466 crores. In index futures front, they sold worth
Rs 1109 crores with fall in open interest indicating long
unwinding and short formations on Friday.
Nifty saw some long formation towards the end of the
week, while Bank Nifty initially witnessed short covering
and then added some fresh longs as well. FII’s were
sellers in the cash segment, but they covered some of
their shorts and added longs in the index futures
segment. Hence, their ‘Long Short Ratio’ increased to 68
percent from 55 percent last week. This bodes well for
the bulls and hence, should provide impetus to this
week’s upmove. In options segment, 15800 call writers
ran to cover their positions on Tuesday as Nifty surpassed
that hurdle, and now put writing was seen due to which
15800 is seen as immediate support. Traders are advised
to continue to trade with a positive bias for this week and
review the situation if the market breaks 15800. On the
higher side, 16000 and 16200-16300 are the probable
targets to watch out for.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.38%.
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.64%
as market closed at 15923.40 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a premium of 12.6 point
against a premium of 13.1 point in last trading session.
The August series closed at a premium of 54.65 point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 12.27 to 11.70. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from 1.29 to
1.24.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, SAIL, NAVINFLUOR, INDUSTOWER,
AND IDFCFIRSTB.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IRCTC 2257125 34.78 2426.65 7.02
ALKEM 682200 33.82 3351.10 0.73
MCDOWELL-N 14922500 33.68 667.15 2.78
INDUSTOWER 18158000 33.46 240.90 2.98
NAM-INDIA 3216000 24.77 418.60 5.51
HDFCAMC 986200 23.03 3094.25 -0.07
COROMANDEL 1247500 19.38 863.25 -1.65
HAVELLS 6634000 19.34 1077.65 3.76
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LTI 740850 -10.70 4288.55 -3.08
LTTS 737400 -8.69 3396.85 -1.57
NMDC 76326400 -7.49 178.70 2.57
GODREJPROP 2308800 -6.77 1577.80 1.35
PFC 38657000 -5.57 127.55 1.39
GRANULES 12348850 -5.50 381.55 3.29
BHEL 111531000 -5.27 66.25 2.07
TORNTPHARM 758750 -5.16 2990.65 -0.29
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.24 0.99
BANKNIFTY 0.80 0.96
RELIANCE 0.44 0.36
ICICIBANK 0.65 0.62
INFY 0.46 0.42
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IRCTC 46.72
NAM-INDIA 52.79
UBL 38.72
GLENMARK 49.81
DIVISLAB 35.19
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 19, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot = 15923.40
FII Statistics for July 16, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
2043.49
3152.66
(1109.17) 144238
11864.60
0.63
INDEX
OPTIONS
237468.66
236546.17
922.49
1092749
94042.61
26.34
STOCK
FUTURES
12201.82
11700.93
500.89
1411071
113197.33
(0.00)
STOCK
OPTIONS
17591.78
17671.77
(79.99) 299037
24482.69
1.19
Total 269305.75
269071.53
234.22
2947095
243587.23
8.55
Turnover on July 16, 2021
Instru
ment
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index
Futures
1,85,618 15768.05 -13.43
Index
Options
2,57,50,180 25,37,319.68
-71.99
Stock
Futures
6,94,140 55707.29 8.66
Stock
Options
26,46,642 2,17,627.38 14.43
Total 2,92,76,580 28,26,422.40
-69.67
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15900 143.05
52.20 47.80 15952.20
Sell 16000 90.85
Buy 15900 143.05
90.75 109.25 15990.75
Sell 16100 52.30
Buy 16000 90.85
38.55 61.45 16038.55
Sell 16100 52.30
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15900 107.60
33.60 66.40 15866.40
Sell 15800 74.00
Buy 15900 107.60
57.55 142.45 15842.45
Sell 15700 50.05
Buy 15800 74.00
23.95 76.05 15776.05
Sell 15700 50.05
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300 16400 16500
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
674
681
692
699
710
ASIANPAINT 2,946 2,968
2,987
3,009
3,028
AXISBANK
762
766
771
776
781
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,904 3,918
3,939
3,953
3,975
BAJFINANCE 6,045 6,085
6,138
6,178
6,230
BAJAJFINSV 12,533
12,639
12,832
12,939
13,131
BPCL
443
446
448
451
454
BHARTIARTL
519
530
537
548
554
BRITANNIA 3,415 3,428
3,450
3,463
3,486
CIPLA
964
971
980
987
997
COALINDIA
144
145
146
147
149
DIVISLAB 4,565 4,661
4,717
4,813
4,869
DRREDDY 5,347 5,377
5,413
5,443
5,480
EICHERMOT 2,569 2,593
2,632
2,656
2,696
GRASIM 1,535 1,554
1,567
1,585
1,598
HCLTECH
967
986
1,017
1,036
1,068
HDFCBANK 1,513 1,517
1,524
1,529
1,535
HDFCLIFE
688
693
697
703
707
HDFC 2,516 2,526
2,542
2,553
2,569
HEROMOTOCO 2,869 2,887
2,898
2,916
2,926
HINDALCO
397
401
404
408
410
HINDUNILVR 2,394 2,406
2,418
2,430
2,442
ICICIBANK
652
656
662
666
672
IOC
104
105
106
107
108
INDUSINDBK 1,031 1,038
1,048
1,055
1,065
INFY 1,535 1,545
1,560
1,570
1,585
ITC
206
207
208
209
211
JSW STEEL
697
701
704
707
710
KOTAKBANK 1,729 1,739
1,751
1,761
1,773
LT 1,585 1,602
1,612
1,629
1,640
M&M
773
776
780
784
788
MARUTI 7,243 7,273
7,303
7,333
7,363
NESTLEIND 17,459
17,556
17,636
17,733
17,813
NTPC
117
118
119
121
122
ONGC
115
116
117
118
118
POWERGRID
228
231
234
237
240
RELIANCE 2,078 2,095
2,105
2,122
2,132
SBILIFE 1,041 1,046
1,052
1,056
1,062
SHREECEM 27,699
27,897
28,199
28,397
28,699
SBIN
425
427
430
433
435
SUNPHARMA
676
682
689
695
702
TCS 3,174 3,185
3,202
3,212
3,230
TATACONSUM
753
758
766
772
780
TATAMOTORS
307
309
312
314
317
TATASTEEL 1,251 1,265
1,273
1,287
1,295
TECHM 1,066 1,085
1,102
1,120
1,137
TITAN 1,677 1,686
1,698
1,707
1,719
ULTRACEMCO 7,115 7,225
7,292
7,402
7,470
UPL
819
828
840
850
862
WIPRO
557
568
578
589
599
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 19, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com
