July
2
5
,
2022
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Technical & Derivatives Report
OOOOOOOO
Nifty
Bank
Outlook
-
(3
6739
)
A week full of bullish dominance has been seen in our equity market,
wherein the Banking index has shown an outperformance with
whopping gains of nearly 6 percent on week-on-week basis. The six
straight sessions of positive closure and the sloping trendline
breakout have certainly boosted the market sentiments. The NIFTY
BANK concluded the week a tad above the 36700 level. On the
technical aspect, the banking index has surpassed many milestones
of resistance in the prior week to conclude above all its major
exponential moving averages on the daily chart. Post such a strong
recovery, one should not rule out the scope of profit booking from
the higher levels. Though the sentiments have turned in favor of the
bulls, wherein any minor correction could be seen as healthy and also
as an opportunity to add fresh longs. As far as levels are concerned,
35800-36000 is likely to provide a cushion in the index. While on the
flip side, 37000 is expected to act as the immediate hurdle, followed
by the unfilled gap of 37400-sub zone in the near period. Meanwhile,
it is advisable tostay light on aggressive bets in the index and lookfor
opportunitieswith astock-centricapproach
.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 36000 Resistance 1 – 37000
Support 2 – 35800 Resistance 2 – 37400
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit
2:
Nifty
Bank
Daily
Chart
Sensex (56072) / Nifty (16719)
On Friday, Nifty started with a gap up opening and with the positive
momentum for the sixth consecutive session ended reclaiming 16700
markwith gainsofabout 0.69%.
Last 3 months have been stressful for financial markets across the
globe but this week, things have improved drastically on a macro
level. In fact, our markets were already showing some resilience in
past weeks and it had all the ingredients to move higher. But sulking
US bourses were not letting our domestic markets to initiate the relief
rally. Finally the much needed impetus was provided throughout the
last week which resulted in a smart rally in our markets. If we refer to
our recent commentary, last week’s up move has certainly validated
our recent bullish stance on the market and the ‘buy on declines’
strategy seem to have worked well in our favor. Now going ahead,
Wednesday’s gap area of 16360 – 16490 is to be seen as a sacrosanct
support and any decline towards the mentioned support is likely to
get bought into. On the higher side, recent swing high of 16793 is very
much within a touching distance now and soon we would expect
benchmark index surpassing this as well. Slowly but steadily we would
see it eyeing its ‘200-SMA’ zone of 16900 – 17050 which would
certainly bea sigh of relief formarket participants.
In
our
sense,
the
index
specific
move
may
not
be
that
fascinating
now from traders’ point of view and hence its better to stick to
stock centric approach in the forthcoming sessions as well. A lot of
thematic moves started doing well and hence, the pragmatic
approach would be to focus on such potential movers which are
likely to provide better trading opportunities. To sum it up,
although the undertone remains bullish, it’s important to
understand that the low hanging fruitis already gone and hence, its
advisable not to become too complacent; rather better to take one
stepat a time fora while.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 16490 Resistance 1 – 16900
Support 2 – 16360 Resistance 2 – 17050
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July
2
5
,
2022
View
We started the week with an upside gap and smart
buying interest was seen as we surpassed 16275
levels. In fact, throughout the week we saw index
inching higher touch 16750. Eventually, we ended the
week on a very strong note with the handsome gains
of more than four percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 675 crores. Simultaneously, in Index
futures, they bought worth Rs. 1182 crores with a fall
in open interest, indicating short covering on Friday.
As far as F&O activity is concerned, the rally was
supported by good amount of longs in banking index;
whereas short covering was seen in Nifty. The put
writers formed strong grip as they kept adding
positions in OTM and ATM put strikes. On the other
side, we are observing 16800 and 17000 call strikes
attracting traders’ attention. Stronger hands too
added bullish bets in index and stock futures
throughout the week. Now, their Long Short Ratio has
surged from 17% to 45%. Considering the overall data,
the bias remains upbeat but certainly risk-reward is
unfavourable for index trade now. Hence, we would
advocate focusing on stock specific trades for the
time being.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
4.06%. and BANK Nifty futures open interest has
increased by 8.34% as the market closed at 16719.45.
The Nifty July future closed with a premium of 3.15
point against a discount of 7.25 point in the last
trading session. The Aug series closed at a
premium of 13.85 point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 16.82 to 16.65. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.48 to 1.42.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are BALKRISIND, OBEROIRLTY,
RECLTD, MFSL and ATUL.
Historical
Volatility
SCRIP HV
ATUL 38.61
ULTRACEMCO 35.21
SYNGENE 39.02
GSPL 41.69
GRASIM 38.38
Nifty Vs OI
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SYNGENE 1952000 29.79 572.65 -4.61
TORNTPOWER 4888500 22.11 503.20 -1.13
CHAMBLFERT 5514000 20.41 320.25 3.25
IBULHSGFIN 49052000 18.40 100.45 -1.13
DEEPAKNTR 2678250 15.32 1815.90 -2.70
MGL 4194400 14.43 752.00 -2.81
INDIAMART 427800 12.77 4074.55 -4.80
JKCEMENT 638750 12.21 2332.50 2.25
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
RBLBANK 50420000 -12.01 92.15 -3.15
DALBHARAT 1075500 -11.99 1595.45 3.27
EICHERMOT 3462900 -6.19 3147.60 2.14
CANFINHOME 3120000 -6.10 537.65 -1.01
BAJAJFINSV 1091350 -5.68 12753.80 0.14
M&MFIN 24092000 -4.89 211.05 0.79
ABB 908500 -4.82 2696.35 -2.66
NBCC 14145000 -4.46 32.70 -3.41
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.42 0.85
BANKNIFTY 1.19 0.82
RELIANCE 0.50 0.45
ICICIBANK 0.72 0.34
INFY 0.63 0.54
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July
2
5
,
2022
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty
Spot
=
16719.45
FII
Statistics
for
July
22
,
2022
Detail Buy Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3604.75 2423.09 1181.66 129774 11202.52 (3.04)
INDEX
OPTIONS
523546.84 522443.72 1103.12 1253892 107849.03 33.11
STOCK
FUTURES
18919.67 17810.12 1109.55 2304820 151530.89 0.76
STOCK
OPTIONS
10914.92 10900.98 13.94 170207 11370.43 2.74
Total
556986.18 553577.91 3408.27 3858693 281952.87 9.34
Turnover
on
July
22
,
2022
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnov
er
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
372682 32529.30 -2.33
Index Options
68484594 6027018.83 -73.92
Stock Futures
1345601 89255.41 21.01
Stock Options
4844685 335212.58 21.03
Total
4,844,685 335212.58 -72.40
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
16700 137.40
49.35 50.65 16749.35
Sell
16800 88.05
Buy
16700 137.40
84.90 115.10 16784.90
Sell
16900 52.50
Buy
16800 88.05
35.55 64.45 16835.55
Sell
16900 52.50
Bear-Put
Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
16700 115.40
37.90 62.10 16662.10
Sell 16600 77.50
Buy
16700 115.40
64.85 135.15 16635.15
Sell
16500 50.55
Buy 16600 77.50
26.95 73.05 16573.05
Sell
16500 50.55
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July
2
5
,
2022
`
Daily
Pivot
Levels
for
Nifty
Constituents
Scrips S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 744 749 757 762 770
APOLLOHOSP 4,049 4,087 4,128 4,167 4,208
ASIANPAINT 3,025 3,046 3,069 3,091
3,114
AXISBANK 707 719 727
739
747
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,018 4,036 4,064 4,082 4,109
BAJFINANCE 6,160 6,209 6,267
6,316
6,374
BAJAJFINSV 12,552 12,653 12,759 12,860 12,966
BPCL 315
317
321 324 328
BHARTIARTL 672 675 679 682 685
BRITANNIA 3,796
3,834
3,881
3,919
3,967
CIPLA 963 968 972 977 981
COALINDIA 195 196 198 199 201
DIVISLAB 3,734 3,765 3,791
3,823
3,849
DRREDDY 4,324 4,349 4,378 4,403 4,432
EICHERMOT 3,033 3,090 3,135
3,192
3,236
GRASIM 1,430 1,476 1,503 1,549 1,576
HCLTECH 897 909 920 932 943
HDFCBANK 1,349
1,371
1,384 1,406 1,419
HDFCLIFE 525 530 534 538 542
HDFC 2,231 2,264 2,283 2,315
2,334
HEROMOTOCO 2,822 2,847 2,865 2,890 2,908
HINDALCO 375 378 380
383
385
HINDUNILVR 2,599 2,620 2,632 2,652 2,664
ICICIBANK 783 791 798 806 812
INDUSINDBK 928 935 946 953 963
INFY 1,465 1,486 1,513
1,533
1,561
ITC 296 298 300 303 305
JSW STEEL 571 577 585 590 598
KOTAKBANK 1,767 1,797 1,820 1,850 1,872
LT 1,740 1,754 1,767
1,781
1,794
M&M 1,164 1,172 1,179
1,188
1,195
MARUTI 8,739 8,785 8,837
8,883
8,935
NESTLEIND 18,721 18,855 18,970
19,103
19,218
NTPC 146
148
150
151
153
ONGC 130
131
133
134
135
POWERGRID 207 208 211
213
216
RELIANCE 2,484 2,493 2,505 2,515 2,526
SBILIFE 1,149 1,157 1,167
1,175
1,184
SHREECEM 20,137 20,458 20,673 20,994 21,209
SBIN 506 510 515 519 524
SUNPHARMA 863 869 872
878
882
TCS 3,117 3,144 3,171
3,198
3,224
TATACONSUM
787 795 810
818
833
TATAMOTORS 448
451
456 459 463
TATASTEEL 925 931 937 943 949
TECHM 998 1,013 1,029 1,044 1,059
TITAN 2,266 2,295 2,313 2,342 2,360
ULTRACEMCO 5,955 6,207 6,351 6,603 6,747
UPL 700 712 722
734
743
WIPRO 404 407 412 416 421
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July
2
5
,
2022
*
Technical
and
Derivatives
Team:
Sameet
Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha
Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh
Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho
Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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