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Finally, some breather after a relentless run
Sensex (62182) / Nifty (18497)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
Our markets started the week on a flat note in absence of global as well as domestic triggers. As the week progressed, key indices
continue to remain in a slumber phase. During the mid-week RBI monetary policy, it appeared as if the Governor dented the
sentiments; but immediately on the next day, the banking space proved its significance as we saw BANKNIFTY clocking new highs
towards the fag end of the week. On Friday, IT counters became the spoilsport by dragging Nifty below the 18500 mark. Fortunately,
the tail end recovery pulled Nifty from lower levels to defend 18400 convincingly.
Finally, markets took a breather after recent relentless run. The Nifty shed slightly over a percent on a week-on-week basis. With
couple of heavyweights imposing pressure on the last day of the week, Nifty was on the verge of a breakdown; but fortunately, bulls
managed to defend their territory at the end. Now, taking a glance at the daily time frame chart, the Nifty is now placed slightly
above the key support of ’20-day EMA’ which coincides with previous swing high of 18450. Hence, we continue to remain upbeat as
long as 18400 – 18300 is not violated on a closing basis. Until then, any intermediate decline should only be construed as a profit
booking before resuming the upward trend. On the flipside, 18650 – 18700 are the levels to watch out for. The moment Nifty
surpasses this, one should gear up for yet another milestone of 19000 in near future.
Traders are advised not to get carried away by such small declines. Rather it’s better to focus more on thematic moves, especially
from the broader end of the spectrum. The Nifty MIDCAP 50 index has given a precise pullback to its breakout point and hence, we
will not be surprised to see more opportunities unfolding from this space.
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ion
PCR-OI hinting market is a bit oversold
Nifty spot closed at 18496.60 this week, against a close of 18696.10 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.94 to 0.76 on
Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 8.59%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 1.91%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 87.05 against a premium of 116.45 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 202.30 points.
Post previous week’s splendid move, we witnessed some consolidation with some sharp profit taking on the final day of the week
which drag index towards 18400. However, due to final hour surge we concluded the week slightly below 18500. During the week,
Nifty witnessed some profit booking; whereas banking index outperformed and also added decent longs. The nearest piling up of
positions is visible in the 18400-18500 put strike, indicating nearby support for Nifty. On the upside, decent stack of OI concentration
is seen around 18600-18700 call strikes, signifying intermediate resistance. The PCR-OI has plunged to 0.76 signifying the market
nearing the oversold region. Stronger hand turned net sellers this week and they also exited longs and added short resulting the
‘Long Short Ratio’ has further cooled off to 58% from 66%, on a weekly basis. The above data point doesn’t indicate any sign of
concern yet hence, we would advocate trader’s to utilised intraday declines to add fresh longs in the system.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
NAVINFLUOR 447450 28.36 4390.55 (1.38)
CROMPTON 4705500 23.99 357.15 (3.53)
TATAMOTORS 72741975 22.23 415.35 (5.39)
PEL 6635750 21.90 851.85 (1.73)
KOTAKBANK 26762800 20.46 1901.85 (2.29)
Weekly change in OI
Long Fo
rmation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
CUMMINSIND 2427600 53.49 1511.35 5.02
COLPAL 2608550 25.98 1666.55 2.13
AUBANK 8146000 15.22 678.10 4.24
ASTRAL 1562275 12.79 2075.20 1.99
PNB 251648000 11.94 56.65 4.23
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|December 09, 2022
Sameet Chavan
C
hief An
alyst
–
Technical
& Derivati
ves
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krisha[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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