Technical and Derivatives Weekly Review - April 10, 2023

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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 10, 2023

Optimism surrounds market; Nifty reclaimed 17600

Sensex (59833) / Nifty (17599)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future outlook

The Indian equity markets had a splendid move in the truncated week, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50 witnessed

continuation in the uptrend post the consolidation breakout in the previous week. The broad-based buying emergence showcased

the eagerness of the bulls to levitate the market amidst favorable conditions. With a robust trading week, Nifty soared nearly 1.40

percent from its last week’s closure and reclaimed the 17600 level.

The truncated yet eventful week marked in favor of the bulls. The no change in the interest rate by the RBI in the last trading session

has provided buoyancy in the overall equity space, and that certainly got reflected in the price action of the key indices. From the

technical aspect, it is a strong comeback from Nifty as it surpasses the 200 SMA on a closing basis. But at the same time, one should

not become complacent and should not rule out the possibility of a breather post the steep rally. As far as levels are concerned,

17500-17400 is likely to cushion any short-term blip, while the sacrosanct support lies around the bullish gap of 17200 in the

comparable period. On the flip side, the 17600-17700 is likely to be seen as an immediate hurdle and an authoritative breach

beyond the same could only trigger the next leg of rally in Nifty towards 17800 for the upcoming week.

Going ahead, we remain sanguine with the current momentum and would advocate the traders to utilize the dips to add long

positions in the index. Simultaneously, one needs to keep a close tab on the mentioned levels and continue with a buy on decline

strategy for the time being. Also, we expect strong moves in the broader market, so one needs to have a stock-centric approach for

better trading opportunities and stay abreast with global and domestic developments.

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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 10, 2023

Sho

rt Form

ion

Banking index sheds 45% of outstanding contracts

Nifty spot closed at 17599.15 this week, against a close of 17359.75 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.27 to 1.20 on

Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.45%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 9.88%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 45.05 against a premium of 82.90 points to its spot in the previous week.

Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 110.50 points.

Post the robust recovery seen in the final week of last financial year, we witnessed a follow-up short covering move to reclaim 17600

with an authority. On the derivatives front, we noticed meaningful short covering of positions in both the key indices, specifically the

banking index wherein open interest reduction of 45% was seen on a weekly basis. The stronger hands curtailed some of their shorts

and added fresh longs in the system by the weekend; hence, the ‘Long Short Ratio’ advanced to 18% from 11% WoW. On the options

front, fresh writing was seen in 17600 put strikes and at the same time the highest OI concentration at the 17500 PE, suggests an

upward shift in the support base. On the flip side, meaningful unwinding was seen in 17400-18000 call strikes which is certainly a

positive development. Considering the above data point, we remain upbeat and expect an extension of upmove towards 17800

going ahead.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

APOLLOHOSP 1713125 22.84 4222.40 (2.75)

FEDERALBNK 63005000 22.40 127.35 (3.85)

MCX 859200 22.32 1501.30 (1.63)

ASHOKLEY 63105000 19.70 137.20 (1.82)

BOSCHLTD 160400 17.72 18886.00 (1.41)

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

BALRAMCHIN 7529600 44.36 413.50 3.89

BAJAJ-AUTO 1935750 33.71 4025.05 3.92

CHOLAFIN 12722500 26.89 845.65 10.77

GMRINFRA 149962500 26.76 44.25 8.72

GUJGASLTD 4838750 20.40 467.35 1.29

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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 10, 2023

Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 10, 2023

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