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|December 16, 2022
Global woes drag Nifty below 18350
Sensex (61338) / Nifty (18269)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
We had a nervous start for the week on Monday in line with not so favorable global cues. Nifty challenged 18400 in initial hours; but
fortunately, it took a U-turn after testing the midpoint of 18400-18300 support range. The upward move continued for next couple
of sessions to almost reclaim the 18700 mark. On Wednesday night, Fed announced a rate hike by 50 bps, which was in line with
consensus; however, later, the Fed governor’s commentary spooked market participants across the globe. This poured complete
water on early week recovery.
The benchmark index Nifty has now sneaked below the key swing low of 18350 on a closing basis. Ideally looking at the price
structure, the development does not augur well for the bulls. A close below this support opens the possibility of extended correction
in the coming week. We may be biased, but we are still not convinced with this close. Only a follow through selling may lead to
further weakness towards 18130 - 18000 - 17900 in coming sessions. Even if this scenario pans out, we do not expect the correction
to aggravate below the lower end of this support range. The higher degree up trend remains intact as long as we manage to hold
this. Since market was deeply overbought, we must consider this as a running correction. On the flipside, 18450 - 18600 are to be
treated as immediate hurdles. If bulls have to regain their strength, 18450 needs to be surpassed with some authority, which will
negate the breakdown from small ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern on daily time frame chart.
Traders are advised to stay light for a while. Let either market complete its correction first or reclaim key levels on the upside to
resume the bullish trend. First half of the forthcoming week would be quite crucial for our markets. Let’s see how global market
behaves and hopefully, there is no major aberration on the global front.
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|December 16, 2022
ion
An intense week of trade; data suggests timidness
Nifty spot closed at 18269 this week, against a close of 18496.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.76 to 0.81 on
Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 9.17%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 2.67%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 59.65 against a premium of 87.05 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 174.40 points.
The weakness in the global market post the Fed rate hike and the hawkish commentary has dampened the overall sentiments,
mirroring to which our market witnessed a strong correction in the last two trading sessions. The benchmark index plunged below
the critical support of 18350 and concluded the week on a negative note with a cut of over a percent. Looking at the derivative data,
we have witnessed a mixed bag of trade throughout the week in both indices and both concluded the week with long unwinding. On
options front, the piling up of positions is visible in the 18100-18000 put strikes, indicating a downward shift in the support base. On
the flip side, decent stack of OI concentration is seen around 18400-18600 call strikes, signifying the immediate resistance for Nifty.
Meanwhile, the stronger hands turned to net sellers this week as they exited longs and added short position, resulting in a plunge to
the ‘Long Short Ratio’ that further cooled off to 55% from 58%, on a weekly basis.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
METROPOLIS 1755000 74.59 1297.05 (9.16)
LALPATHLAB 1569750 64.37 2242.55 (7.90)
IRCTC 20811875 22.06 673.65 (6.61)
LAURUSLABS 11241200 21.61 389.40 (6.29)
CANFINHOME 4969575 17.93 525.50 (6.16)
Weekly change in OI
Long Fo
rmation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
BALRAMCHIN 11185600 28.80 395.85 4.29
TATAMOTORS 82897950 13.96 420.25 1.18
IDEA 622160000 11.42 8.35 3.73
IBULHSGFIN 47780000 10.85 147.40 3.95
BALKRISIND 2078700 9.36 2114.60 2.28
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|December 16, 2022
Sameet Chavan
C
hief An
alyst
–
T
e
chnical
& Derivati
ves
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krisha[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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