As we step into 2025, the Indian economy is set to face a series of pivotal events that will influence financial markets and shape future economic trends. Key developments, such as central bank policies, the Union budget and crucial economic data releases, will have profound implications for inflation, interest rates, and global growth.
Market participants, from investors to policymakers, will closely monitor these events to gauge economic health, adjust strategies, and respond to shifting conditions.
Below is a list of key events in early 2025 that will be critical for investors anticipating potential risks and opportunities in India in the months ahead.
The economic events calendar starts with an event crucial not only to the US economy but also to emerging markets. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which decides on the US monetary policy will give its interest rate decision on January 29, 2025.
Traders closely monitor these rate changes, as short-term interest rates play a key role in currency valuation. A rate hike that exceeds expectations is generally seen as bullish for the USD, whereas a rate cut or lower-than-expected increase tends to be bearish for the USD. This movement has an inverse impact on the Indian rupee.
Fed’s decision remains key as in early December 2024, the US central bank reduced interest rates but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that any further cuts would depend on continued progress in reducing persistently high inflation.
Before the Union budget presentation on February 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance will release the Economic Survey, followed by a press conference featuring the Chief Economic Advisor and other senior officials from the Finance Ministry.
The Economic Survey includes the state of India’s economy in the previous financial year. It also includes key insights like India’s GDP growth outlook, inflation rate and projection, forex reserves, and trade deficits.
The recent fall in RBI’s foreign exchange reserves and the widening of India’s trade deficit make this survey crucial to watch. As per news reports, the big theme for the upcoming survey will be deregulation or the process of letting go of regulations in some spheres.
On February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget for the 2025-26 financial year. Key focus areas will include the fiscal deficit figure and any tweaks to the income tax slabs.
Despite the Union budget being presented on a Saturday, both the BSE and NSE have announced that stock markets will remain open for trading.
The first RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 2025 will also mark the debut of Sanjay Malhotra as the newly appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The meeting is scheduled for February 5, 2025 – February 7, 2025.
Market participants will pay close attention to the tone set by the new governor, seeking clues on potential future rate decisions. The immediate challenges for the new governor include addressing the sharper-than-expected slowdown in economic growth, managing near-term inflation volatility, and maintaining currency stability.
Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. This does not constitute a personal recommendation/investment advice. It does not aim to influence any individual or entity to make investment decisions. Recipients should conduct their own research and assessments to form an independent opinion about investment decisions.
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Published on: Dec 30, 2024, 6:38 PM IST
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