Sensex Returns During Different Indian Prime Ministers’ Periods

The Indian markets opened the week on a bullish note, with major indices like the Nifty50 and Sensex trading at their all-time high levels. Today, the BSE, India’s oldest exchange, marked a significant achievement as the combined market capitalization of all listed stocks on the BSE crossed the Rs 400 lakh crore milestone for the first time on Monday.

Today, the Sensex opened at 74,555.44 and reached intraday highs and lows of 74,797.40 and 74,410.07, respectively. Currently, it is trading around 74,785.70, reflecting a 0.73% increase compared to Friday’s closing levels.

In this article, we are going to explore the Sensex returns during different Prime Ministers’ tenures.

Sensex Performance across Different Prime Ministers

With the general elections approaching, all eyes are on the potential impact on the Indian stock market. PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is widely expected to retain power. This expectation is fueled by PM Modi’s continued popularity and a perceived lack of a strong opposition challenge.

An analysis of historical data reveals interesting trends in market performance during election cycles. Typically, markets tend to remain flat during the actual election period. However, the months following the elections can witness a dip as valuations often adjust to the election outcome. This pattern was observed in most elections, with exceptions in 2009 and 2014.

The 2009 election witnessed a market upswing due to a combination of factors – the post-global financial crisis recovery and investor confidence in the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government. In 2014, the BJP’s landslide victory, with its focus on business reforms, gave a significant boost to the markets.

The 2019 elections resulted in the BJP retaining power, but with a stronger showing than anticipated. While the markets initially remained elevated, they soon corrected to pre-election levels before resuming their upward trajectory. This suggests that while elections are a significant event, they are not the sole driver of market movements.

Interest Rates and the Road Ahead

Looking ahead, interest rates are expected to decline in the latter half of 2024, supported by the government’s focus on controlling inflation. Core inflation has shown a downward trend, while food inflation remains a concern. However, with predictions of a good monsoon season, food inflation is likely to ease, bringing overall inflation closer to the RBI’s comfort zone and paving the way for potential rate cuts.

Manufacturing in Focus: Government’s Growth Strategy

The BJP government has placed a strong emphasis on the manufacturing sector, aiming to achieve a 25% contribution to GDP. This focus is reflected in the positive trend of the manufacturing index since the launch of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in March 2020. Initiatives like the recent cut in electric vehicle (EV) import taxes, contingent on domestic investment and manufacturing commitments, further underscore the government’s commitment to this sector.

Cautious Optimism for Markets

While a major corporate tax cut, similar to the one implemented in 2019, is unlikely this year, a broad consensus expects interest rates to fall in the latter half of 2024, following the elections. Although the RBI maintains its withdrawal of accommodation stance, there’s a possibility of a shift towards a more neutral stance in the second half of the year. This change, coupled with improved monsoon rains and a rise in rural consumption, could mirror the post-2019 election scenario where interest rates witnessed a continuous decline after a period of pause. This would be a positive development for the markets, potentially leading to a rise in private capital expenditure.

Conclusion

The Indian economy presents a prudent picture in the lead-up to the 2024 elections. The RBI’s cautious approach reflects its focus on managing inflation while fostering growth. The anticipated election outcome, combined with the expectation of lower interest rates in the latter half of the year, paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the Indian stock market. The manufacturing sector’s positive trajectory and the government’s continued focus on infrastructure development are further reasons for optimism. However, the impact of monsoon rains and global geopolitical tensions remain factors to watch. Overall, a data-driven approach and a close watch on government policies will be crucial for navigating the Indian economy in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. The information is based on various secondary sources on the internet and is subject to change. Please consult with a financial expert before making investment decisions.