CALCULATE YOUR SIP RETURNS

USD/INR: Indian Rupee Climbs as Investors Brace for US Retail Sales, Fed Talk

Written by: Neha DubeyUpdated on: Apr 16, 2025, 4:42 PM IST
Indian Rupee strengthens for the fifth straight day, supported by a weaker US Dollar and lower oil prices, as markets await US retail sales and Powell’s speech.
USD/INR: Indian Rupee Climbs as Investors Brace for US Retail Sales, Fed Talk
ShareShare on 1Share on 2Share on 3Share on 4Share on 5

The USD/INR spot rate is trading lower at 85.61 at 4:20 PM as of April 16, 2025, marking a 0.11% decline (-0.09) on the day. The pair has moved within a tight intraday range of 85.52 to 85.76, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of key U.S. economic events.

Market Drivers: Dollar Dips, Oil Drops, and Policy Buzz

The US Dollar has been gradually weakening, which is supporting emerging market currencies such as the Indian Rupee. At the same time, the continued decline in oil prices is helping to ease India’s import costs, offering some relief to the trade balance.

Market participants are now turning their attention to two key developments: the upcoming release of the US March Retail Sales data and a scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Retail sales are projected to increase by 1.3% month-on-month, as per news reports, while Powell’s remarks will be analysed for insights into the Fed’s stance on future interest rate moves.

Back in India: Positive Momentum Builds

To support liquidity, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced it will purchase ₹400 billion in bonds and conduct a 43-day repo worth ₹1.5 trillion on Thursday.

Meanwhile, India’s March CPI inflation came in at 3.34% year-over-year—softer than February’s 3.61% and below the market forecast. This lower-than-expected inflation print gives the RBI more room to maneuver without aggressive rate hikes.

Fed Uncertainty Keeps Traders on Edge

Comments from key Fed figures earlier this week added to the uncertainty. Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagged tariffs as a major risk that might justify a rate cut, even with inflation still high. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the US economy is in a “big pause” and suggested the Fed should hold off on further moves until there’s more clarity.

Conclusion

The Indian Rupee’s recent appreciation reflects a mix of supportive domestic and global factors, including a softer US Dollar, easing crude oil prices, and controlled inflation at home.

With the Reserve Bank of India maintaining liquidity support and inflation staying within target, the INR remains relatively well-positioned in the short term. However, all eyes are now on upcoming US retail sales data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which could influence global rate expectations and currency market direction.

 

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. This does not constitute a personal recommendation/investment advice. It does not aim to influence any individual or entity to make investment decisions. Recipients should conduct their own research and assessments to form an independent opinion about investment decisions.

Published on: Apr 16, 2025, 4:42 PM IST

Neha Dubey

Neha Dubey is a Content Analyst with 3 years of experience in financial journalism, having written for a leading newswire agency and multiple newspapers. At Angel One, she creates daily content on finance and the economy. Neha holds a degree in Economics and a Master’s in Journalism.

Know More

We're Live on WhatsApp! Join our channel for market insights & updates

Open Free Demat Account!

Join our 3 Cr+ happy customers

+91
Enjoy Zero Brokerage on Equity Delivery
4.4 Cr+DOWNLOADS
Enjoy ₹0 Account Opening Charges

Get the link to download the App

Get it on Google PlayDownload on the App Store
Open Free Demat Account!
Join our 3 Cr+ happy customers