For the first time since April 2010, India’s banking system has recorded a cash deficit of ₹3.3 lakh crore. This deficit, as measured by banks’ borrowings from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), highlights a sharp contraction in systemic liquidity, raising concerns about borrowing costs and overall financial stability.
Key Reasons Behind the Liquidity Crunch
- Foreign Exchange Market Interventions:
RBI’s active involvement in stabilising the rupee has drained liquidity. Recent forex market volatility has necessitated significant intervention, affecting cash flow in the banking system. - Tax and GST Outflows:
With periodic outflows due to tax payments and Goods and Services Tax (GST) settlements, substantial cash is temporarily locked out of circulation, tightening liquidity further. - Capital Flow Volatility:
Prolonged outflows by foreign investors have added to the liquidity strain. This has been compounded by rising global oil prices, which have further pressured the rupee and depleted reserves. - Just-In-Time (JIT) Implementation:
Movements in government cash balances under the JIT framework have impacted systemic liquidity, amplifying the current deficit.
RBI’s Response and Challenges Ahead
To address the liquidity deficit, the RBI has resorted to injecting funds into the system. Between December 16, 2024, and January 15, 2025, the central bank infused ₹11.5 lakh crore through Variable Rate Repo (VRR) operations with short maturities of 1 to 7 days. Despite these efforts, liquidity pressures persist.
Implications of Lower Liquidity
- Higher Borrowing Costs:
Banks facing liquidity shortages may transfer higher borrowing costs to consumers, potentially leading to increased lending rates. - Economic Growth Concerns:
While some expect a rate cut in the RBI’s upcoming February meeting to spur growth, a liquidity surplus is critical for passing on the benefits of reduced interest rates.
The Rupee’s Performance and Its Impact
The rupee has faced consistent pressure due to extended foreign outflows and a surge in global oil prices. On January 14, the rupee hit an all-time low of ₹86.70 against the US dollar, losing 2.5% of its value in three months. Defending the currency has led to substantial spending of foreign reserves, sparking debate about the long-term sustainability of this approach.
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